Financial sector

Investors believe Mario Draghi could impose deeper negative interest rates and unleash more QE tomorrow. UK construction growth hits seven-month low. Latest: eurozone inflation just 0.1%. Citi predicts big moves from Draghi tomorrow…

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Euro weakens as eurozone inflation boosts stimulus hopes – business live” was written by Graeme Wearden, for theguardian.com on Wednesday 2nd December 2015 17.01 UTC

After a fairly undramatic day, London’s stock market has closed higher:

In 24 hours we’ll know exactly what Mario Draghi and co have decided.

In the meantime, City analysts continue to speculate — and perhaps prepare the ground for some ‘I told you so’ action.

Capital Economics have nailed their trousers to the mast, forecasting steeper negative interest rates on banks, and a serious QE boost.

Brian Davidson says:

We have long argued that the ECB would need to add more stimulus before long, and the consensus has come round to this view following a series of dovish signals by the ECB. Accordingly, markets are now pricing in a cut of around 10bp to the deposit rate and polls show that most economists expect a €15bn increase in monthly asset purchases. We think the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 20bp, and increase its monthly asset purchases by €20bn.

Updated

Thursday’s ECB meeting could be quite combative, as some central bank governors are reluctant to provide more stimulus.

The German contingent are particularly concerned, as the Wall Street Journal explains:

Several officials have expressed skepticism that more stimulus is needed at this time, led by the ECB’s two German officials, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member Sabine Lautenschläger. Central bankers from Baltic euro members have also signalled resistance, making it unlikely that Thursday’s decision will be a unanimous one.

More here:

Newsflash from Ontario: The Bank of Canada has left interest rates unchanged at today’s policy meeting.

Money is also flowing into eurozone government bonds today, on anticipation that the ECB will boost its QE programme.

This has driven the yield, or interest rate on German two-year bonds deeper into negative territory – which means the price is at a record high.

The pound is tumbling on the FX markets today.

It just hit a new seven and a half-month low against the US dollar at $1.4979.

Sterling is being hit by two events

Back to the eurozone.

Swiss bank UBS have produced a nifty chart showing the main options which the ECB could deploy tomorrow…..and the likely impact on the markets.

ECB policy options

Updated

US private sector job creation hits five-month high

A strong dose of US employment data has just increased the chances that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in two weeks time.

A total of 217,000 new jobs were created by US companies last month, according to the ADP Research Institute.

That’s the biggest rise in private sector payrolls since June, and beats forecasts for a 190,000 increase. It also beats October’s reading of 196,000, which was revised up from 182,000.

It suggests that the wider Non-Farm Payroll will show a robust labour market. The NFP is due on Friday, and is the last major data point until the Fed’s December meeting.

US ADP Payroll

US ADP Payroll Photograph: ADP / fastFT

As fastFT puts it:

Although the ADP survey has not proved a consistent forecaster of the official monthly government jobs numbers, they may soothe investors nerves ahead of an important period for economic data and central bank decisions.

The euro has fallen back today, in another sign that Draghi is expected to announce new stimulus measures tomorrow.

The single currency dropped back through the $1.06 mark against the US dollar today, which is a near eight-month low.

Euro vs US dollar today

Euro vs US dollar today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

This is a handy chart, showing the three main options in the ECB’s toolbox, and the way they could be deployed:

There’s no realistic chance that eurozone inflation will hit the forecasts drawn up by the ECB’s own economists three months ago.

That’s the view of Timo del Carpio, European Economist, RBC Capital Markets, who told clients:

The most recent staff projections from the ECB (published in September) revealed an expectation for HICP [inflation] to average 0.4% y/y over Q4/15 as a whole.

Taking into account today’s outturn, this would require the headline rate to rise to at least 0.8% y/y in December in order for those forecasts to still be valid. Suffice to say, we think that is too tall an order, even taking into account the expected base effects from last year’s oil price declines (expected to come into force primarily in December and January).

In other words, this outturn should represent further downside news for the ECB.

And that’s why del Carpio predicts a further 20 basis point cut to the deposit rate, and a 6-month extension to the QE asset purchase programme .

It’s all systems go for more ECB stimulus, says Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics:

“November’s weaker-than-expected eurozone consumer prices figures give a final green light for the ECB to both increase the pace of its asset purchases and cut its deposit rate at tomorrow’s policy meeting.”

Loynes is also concerned the core inflation – which excludes volatile components such as energy prices – dropped from 1.1% in October to 0.9% in November.

(FILES) A picture taken on August 7, 2014 shows the Euro logo in front of the European Central Bank, ECB in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany. Financial markets are looking to the European Central Bank to open the cash floodgates next week after consumer price data showed the 18-country eurozone is flirting with deflation, analysts said. AFP PHOTO / DANIEL ROLANDDANIEL ROLAND/AFP/Getty Images

Ruben Segura-Cayuela, a euro zone economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, believes the weak inflation report will have surprised the European Central Bank, in a bad way.

With inflation stuck at just 0.1%, Segura-Cayuela believes the ECB will boost its bond-buying QE programme from the current rate of €60bn per month.

I’ve taken the quotes off Reuters:

“It [the inflation report] is not consistent with the trend that the ECB was expecting.

We are expecting a one year extension on QE purchases and quantities to go up to as much as €70bn a month.”

Segura-Cayuela is also in the ‘deeper negative rates’ camp — he reckons the deposit rate on bank deposits at the ECB could fall from -0.2% to -0.3%.

European stock markets are still rallying after the inflation data reinforced hopes of more eurozone stimulus:

European stock markts

Bloomberg’s Maxime Sbaihi also expects significant action from the European Central Bank tomorrow:

Updated

Economist and ECB watcher Fred Ducrozet has found a chart showing how weak inflation will prompt extra QE from the European Central Bank.

The x-axis shows the forecast for inflation — the ECB’s target is just below 2%.

The y-axis shows how much extra bond-buying would be needed if inflation is falling short — red if the ECB is struggling to push funds into the real economy, and grey if the ‘transmission mechanism’ is working well.

And as Fred tweets, today’s poor inflation data suggests anything between €400bn and one trillion euros of extra QE could be required.

Citi predicts lots more QE.

Citigroup has predicted that Mario Draghi will make two serious announcements tomorrow.

1) They expect him to hit the banks with more severe negative interest rates, by cutting the deposit rate at the ECB to minus 0.4% (compared with minus 0.2% today).

2) In addition, they suspect Draghi will boost the ECB’s bond-buying programme from €60bn per month to €75bn per month….

…and also run the quantitative easing programme for another six months. So rather than ending in September 2016, it would continue to March 2017.

That adds up to around €585bn of extra QE, I reckon.

City traders are predicting that Mario Draghi will announce a significant increase in the ECB’s stimulus measures on Thursday:

This weak inflation report could provoke the ECB into a more dramatic stimulus boost at tomorrow’s governing council meeting, says Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets:

He believes Mario Draghi could announce plans to buy more assets with newly printed money each month, rather than just run the quantitative easing programme for longer.

The euro plunged after data showed Eurozone inflation was stuck at a meagre 0.1% year-over-year in November, missing estimates of a slight rise to 0.2%.

The inflation miss adds to the case for stronger action from the ECB tomorrow. The data could be the difference-maker for the ECB choosing to increase the size of monthly asset purchases over just extending the end-date of the QE program.

Currently the ECB is buying €60bn of assets each month with new money, to expand its balance sheet and push more cash into the economy.

Updated

The euro has fallen sharply, as investors calculate that the ECB is very likely to announce new stimulus measures tomorrow:

Eurozone inflation: the detail

Eurozone’s inflation rate was, once again, pegged back by cheaper oil and petrol.

Here’s the detail, explaining why inflation was just 0.1% last month.

  • Energy prices slumped by 7.3%
  • Food: up 1.5%
  • Service: up 1.1%
  • Other goods: +0.5%
Eurozone inflation

Eurozone inflation, November 2015 Photograph: Eurostat

Another blow – core inflation, which excludes energy, food and tobacco, only rose by 0.9%.

That’s down from 1.1% a month ago, suggesting that inflationary pressure in the eurozone is actually weakening….

Eurozone inflation stuck at 0.1%

Here comes the eagerly-awaited eurozone inflation data!

And it shows that consumer prices only rose by 0.1% year-on-year in November.

That’s a little weaker than the 0.2% which economists had expected.

It raises the chances of significant new stimulus moves from the European Central Bank tomorrow (as explained earlier in this blog)

More to follow….

Updated

The pound has been knocked by the news that UK construction growth has hit a seven-month low:

Pound vs dollar today

Pound vs dollar today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Updated

Britain’s construction sector is suffering from a lack of skilled builders, warns David Noble, CEO at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply.

He says this is a key factor behind the sharp drop in growth last month:

“Suppliers continued to struggle this month, citing shortages in key materials, supply chain capacity and skilled capability as the causes.

But there is a question mark over the coming months as the housing sector, normally the star performer, may drag back on recovery along with the lack of availability of skilled staff.”

Maybe George Osborne should get back to that building site….

Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne lays a brick during a visit to a housing development in South Ockendon in Essex, Britain November 26, 2015. REUTERS/Carl Court/Pool

Construction recovery is ‘down but not out’

The slowdown in housebuilding growth last month means that it was overtaken by the commercial building sector, as this chart shows:

Construction PMI by sector

Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, explains:

“The UK construction recovery is down but not out, according to November’s survey data. Aside from a pre-election growth slowdown in April, the latest expansion of construction activity was the weakest for almost two-and-a-half years amid a sharp loss of housebuilding momentum.

“Residential activity lost its position as the best performing sub-category, but a supportive policy backdrop should help prevent longer-term malaise. Strong growth of commercial construction was maintained in November as positive UK economic conditions acted as a boost to new projects, while civil engineering remained the weakest performer.

UK construction growth hits seven-month low

Breaking — growth across Britain’s construction sector has slowed to a seven month low, as builders suffer an unexpected slowdown.

Data firm Markit reports that house building activity expanded at the lowest rate since June 2013 in November.

Markit’s Construction PMI, which measures activity across the sector, fell to 55.3 last month from 58.8 in October.

That is the weakest reading since the pre-election slowdown in April, and the second-weakest since mid 2013.

The slowdown was particularly sharp in the house-building area – which is particularly worrying, given Britain’s desperate need for more homes.

Markit says:

All three broad areas of construction activity experienced a slowdown in output growth during November. Residential building activity increased at the weakest pace since June 2013, while civil engineering activity rose at the slowest rate for six months and was the worst performing sub- category.

UK construction PMI

More to follow…

Yannis Stournaras governor of Bank of Greece shows the new 20 euro note in Athens, Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2015. The new 20 euro notes will circulate in the 19 Eurozone countries on Wednesday. Greece was formally cleared Monday to get the next batch of bailout loans due from its third financial rescue after the cash-strapped country implemented a series of economic reform measures that European creditors had demanded. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

A new survey of Europe’s businesses has found that, for the first time since 2009, they aren’t struggling to get credit.

That suggests the ECB’s policy measures are having an effect — and also indicates that perhaps more stimulus isn’t needed after all….

The ECB surveyed more than 11,000 companies across the eurozone. And most reported that they have no concerns over their ability to borrow. Instead, the main problem is a lack of customers.

It’s six weeks since the last ECB meeting, when Mario Draghi dropped a loud hint that the central bank was ready to do more stimulus if needed.

Since then, European stock markets have climbed steadily, and are heading for a three-month high today.

Latvia’s central bank governor has apparently told a local newspaper that the ECB’s quantitative easing programme is “better than doing nothing”.

That’s via Bloomberg. The interview took place with the Neatkariga Rita Avize newspaper – but there’s only a teaser online.

There’s a bit of edginess in the markets this morning, as investors wait for November’s eurozone inflation data to arrive in 70 minutes time.

Economists expect a small uptick, from 0.1% to 0.2% — while core inflation (which strips out volatile factors like energy and food) might hover around 1.1%.

A poor reading would surely seal fresh stimulus measure at tomorrow’s ECB meeting. But a stronger inflation report might cause jitters, as Conner Campbell of Spreadex puts it:

Given that the region’s failure to reach its inflation targets is one of the main reasons the Eurozone’s central bank is considering another injection of QE, this Wednesday’s figures perhaps carry slightly more weight than they have of late.

European stock markets

European stock markets in early trading Photograph: Thomson Reuters

This chart shows how investors expect the ECB to impose deeper negative interest rates on commercial banks.

That would discourage them from leaving money in its vaults rather than lending it to consumers and businesses:

Ramin Nakisa of UBS

Ramin Nakisa of UBS Photograph: Bloomberg TV

It’s possible that the European Central Bank disappoints the markets tomorrow.

Ramin Nakisa, global asset allocation manager at UBS, believes the ECB will not boost its quantitative easing programme tomorrow, despite a general belief that more QE is coming.

He also reckons the deposit rate paid by banks who leave cash at the ECB will only be cut by 10 basis points, from minus 0.2% to minus 0.3%.

Nakisa tells Bloomberg TV:

If that happens, there could be some disappointment in the markets.

But in the long-term, Nakisa adds, the eurozone economy is recovering. More stimulus isn’t really needed.

Ding ding – European markets are open for trading, and shares are rising.

The German DAX, French CAC, Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX are all up around 0.4%, ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

The FTSE 100 is lagging, though – up just 0.1%. It’s being dragged down by Saga, the travel and insurance group, which has shed 5% after its biggest shareholder sold a 13% stake.

The Bank of England printing works, now De La Rue, in Debden Newly printed sheets of 5 notes are checked for printing mistakes<br />B81HM8 The Bank of England printing works, now De La Rue, in Debden Newly printed sheets of 5 notes are checked for printing mistakes

You’d think that printing banknotes would be a safely lucrative business (losing money? Just make some more!).

But De La Rue, the UK-based printer, has just announced that it’s cutting around 300 staff and halving its production lines from eight to four.

The axe is falling sharply on its Malta plant, which is to close.

De La Rue prints more than 150 national currencies, and has suffered from falling demand for paper notes. There had been chatter that it might pick up the contract to produce new drachma for Greece, but that particular opportunity appears to have gone…..

Updated

VW shareholders to face workers

There could be ructions in Wolfsberg his morning, as the billionaire owners of Volkswagen face workers for the first time since the emissions cheating scandal broke.

The Porsche-Piech have been criticised for keeping a low profile since the VW crisis erupted. But today, several members of the group will make the trip to the carmakers headquarters to show solidarity with workers – who are being forced to down tools over Christmas because sales have weakened.

Bloomberg has a good take:

Wolfgang Porsche, chairman of family-owned majority shareholder Porsche Automobil Holding SE, will address thousands of workers in hall 11 of Volkswagen’s huge factory in Wolfsburg, Germany. He’ll be flanked at the 9:30 a.m. staff meeting by the other three supervisory board members who represent the reclusive clan: Louise Kiesling, Hans-Michel Piech and Ferdinand Oliver Porsche.

The Porsche-Piech family has been asked by labor leaders to signal their commitment to workers, now facing two weeks of forced leave during the Christmas holidays as the crisis begins to affect sales.

Labor chief Bernd Osterloh, who has pushed to shield workers by focusing cutbacks on Volkswagen’s model portfolio, will host the assembly. It comes amid mixed news for Volkswagen: though the company has made progress toward a simpler-than-expected recall of 8.5 million rigged diesel cars in Europe, plummeting U.S. sales show the impact of the crisis on the showroom floor.

Updated

The Agenda: Eurozone inflation could seal stimulus move

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

There’s a ‘calm before the storm’ feeling in the markets today. Investors are bracing for Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, where it is widely expected to boost its stimulus programme.

European stock markets are tipped to rally at the open, on anticipation that Mario Draghi will step up to the plate again and announce something significant.

It could be a new cut to borrowing costs, hitting banks with harsher negative interest rates to force them to lend money. Or it could be an extension to the ECB’s QE programme – a commitment to pump even more new electronic money into the economy.

Or both.

Or something else entirely. With ‘Super Mario’, you never know for sure.

The ECB is under pressure to act, because inflation in the eurozone is so weak.

At 10am GMT, the latest eurozone prices data is released — it’s expected to show that prices rose by just 0.2% annually in November. That would be an improvement on October’s 0.1%, but still far short of the target (just below 2%).

Also coming up today….

  • Market releases its UK construction PMI report at 9.30am GMT. That will show how the building industry fared last month -
  • The latest measure of US private sector employment is released at 1.30pm GMT. That will give a clue to how many jobs were created across America last month, ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report.
  • Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is speaking at the Economics Club of Washington on Wednesday at 5:25pm GMT.
  • And Canada’s central bank sets interest rates at 3pm GMT – we’re expecting no change.

We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day….

Updated

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Eurozone ministers are expected to refuse to hand over €2bn in new loans to Greece today, as a row over bad loans deepens. Officials: Eurogroup won’t release €2bn to Greece. France: We want a deal with Greece. OECD warns on global trade slowdown…

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Greece battles with creditors over new bailout payment – business live” was written by Graeme Wearden, for theguardian.com on Monday 9th November 2015 13.57 UTC

Wolfgang Schauble also flagged up that Greece has not yet implemented its new privatisation fund.

This was a key part of July’s bailout deal, under which €50bn of Greek assets will be sold off to cover the cost of recapitalising its banking sector.

Wolfgang Schauble

Germany’s Wolfgang Schäuble has arrived at the meeting.

He sounds fairly relaxed as he speaks to reporters.

Schäuble says that Greece has not yet taken all the required steps to qualify for its next aid tranche (according to his knowledge anyway).

Here’s the key quote from Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem, confirming that Greece won’t get its €2bn today:

“The 2 billion will only be paid out once the institutions give the green light and say that all agreed actions have been carried out and have been implemented. That still has not happened.”

Some reaction to Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments as he arrived at the eurogroup meeting:

Dijsselbloem: Greece must complete first milestones very soon

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem
Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem Photograph: EbS

An official limo has just deposited Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem at today’s meeting.

He gave a brief ‘doorstep’ to reporters — it sounds like he’s not expecting to sign off Greece’s next aid tranche today.

Dijsselbloem says progress has been made in recent weeks regarding Greece’s banks and reform programmes.

But there are still open issues, and a lot more work needs to be done in the next two weeks.

The first set of milestones must be completed soon, he adds (which would pave the way to disbursing that €2bn in new loans).

And Dijsselbloem says he can’t speculate about the political crisis in Portugal where left-wing parties could soon win power.

My understanding is there will be debate today and tomorrow, says Dijsselbloem. There is always a legitimate government in each country, and that’s the government we work with….

Updated

Moscovici: Still a little way to go on Greece

Pierre Moscovici

Ministers are starting to arrive at today’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has told reporters gathered outside that he hopes Greece will receive its €2bn aid tranche this week, if not today.

Moscovici says he had “very positive, very fruitful meetings” in Athens last week with prime minister Alexis Tsipras and finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos.

The moves are positive. Most of the milestones are already adopted or decided. There is still a way to go.

We are not yet completely there, but I am hopeful and confident that with the spirit of compromise, with good co-operation with the authorities we can make it… if not today then in the days to come.

We are not far from that, but obviously there is a little way to go.

Moscovici then vanished inside, where he (or his team) tweeted this optimistic message too:

Shares are falling sharply on the Lisbon stock market, as investors react to the latest political upheaval in Portugal.

The main stock index, the PSI 20, has shed more than 2%, as the country’s socialist parties prepare to oust the centre-right administration sworn in two weeks ago.

Portuguese sovereign bonds are also continuing to fall, showing greater anxiety over the prospect of an anti-austerity government taking over.

The 10-year Portuguese bond is now yielding nearly 2.9%, a jump of 23 basis points. That’s a four-month high.

Over the weekend, four left-wing parties put aside their differences to support a legislative programme. They collectively hold a majority of seats in the parliament, following October’s election.

Analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group have already warned that the Socialist-led program “is clearly less market-friendly than the one of the incumbent government,” Bloomberg flags up.

More here:

Updated

Greece “plans return to capital markets” in 2016

Now here’s a thing. Greece is apparently hoping to return to the financial markets next year.

Government insiders have told the Financial Times that plans are afoot to sell debt in the capital markets in 2016.

Despite the wild drama this year (capital controls, failing to repay the IMF, nearly leaving the eurozone), Athens hopes that investors will put their faith in them.

The FT says:

It won’t be in the first quarter but summer has been talked about,” said a person familiar with the situation.

“It depends on a positive chain reaction of events but discussions have been held.”

Full story: Greece plans a return to capital markets

Experienced City investors may raise their eyebrows….

On the other hand, Greece hasn’t actually defaulted on the three-year debt it issued last summer:

Updated

European Commissioner president Jean-Claude Juncker has just welcomed eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem to his office, for talks ahead of this afternoon’s meeting of finance chiefs.

Dijsselbloem got the tradition greeting:

Analyst: Greek crisis is repeating

Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank, says investors need to pay attention to Greece again:

Rosenstreich is worried that Athens and its eurozone neighbours couldn’t reach agreement on how to handle the repossession of houses from people who are in default on their mortgages.

It suggests the whole third bailout deal, agreed after so much angst in July, may be in early trouble.

Rosenstreich says:

Left-wing Syriza is concerned that the high threshold will expose too many Greece citizens to the loss of their primary properties. In addition, Athens is balking at a 23% take rate on private schools.

This feels like a repeat of 8-months ago. The whole world understood that the third bailout agreement made was unsustainable. It was only a matter of time before it unraveled.

Getting back to Greece…

AFP’s man in Brussels, Danny Kemp, has heard that the outstanding issues between Greece ands its creditors *might* be resolved in a few days.

The OECD has also cut its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9%, down from 3%, due to the sharp slide in trade.

It also predicts growth of 3.3% in 2016, down from 3.6% previously.

The two demonstrators who disrupted David Cameron’s speech have revealed they created a fictitious company to get into the CBI’s flagship event:

Perhaps the CBI should get some advice from the European Central Bank, which upgraded its own security systems after a protester jumped on Mario Draghi’s desk this year…

The OECD’s latest economic outlook is online here.

OECD sounds alarm over global trade

The OECD has just released its latest economic projections.

And the Paris-based thinktank has warned that global growth is threatened by the impact of China’s slowdown on world trade, but raised its forecast for US growth.

It also urged richer countries to step up investment while keeping monetary policy loose, as my colleague Katie Allen explains.

The thinktank’s twice-yearly outlook highlights risks from emerging markets and weak trade.

Presenting the Outlook in Paris, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said:

“The slowdown in global trade and the continuing weakness in investment are deeply concerning. Robust trade and investment and stronger global growth should go hand in hand.”

The thinktank edged up its forecast for economic growth in the group of 34 OECD countries this year to 2.0% from 1.9% in June’s outlook, when it had noted a sharp dip in US growth at the opening of 2015. For 2016, it has cut the forecast for OECD countries’ growth to 2.2% from 2.5%.

The OECD left its forecasts for the UK little changed with growth of 2.4% this year and next, compared with a forecast for 2016 growth of 2.3% made in June. The US economy, the world’s biggest, is now seen growing 2.4% this year and 2.5% in 2016, compared with June’s forecasts of 2.0% and 2.8%.

On the UK, the OECD said economic growth was projected to “continue at a robust pace over the coming two years, driven by domestic demand.”

Updated

Greece’s economy minister, George Stathakis, has suggested that eurozone governments might have to take a ‘political decision’ on whether Greece should get its €2bn aid tranche.

Stathakis told Real FM radio that talks with officials over how to enforce foreclosure laws have run their course:

The thorny issue is the distance that separates us on the issue of protecting primary residences.

“I think the negotiations we conducted with the institutions has closed its cycle .. so it’s a political decision which must be taken.

Updated

WSJ: Eurozone won’t release Greek loan today

Two eurozone officials have told the Wall Street Journal that there’s no chance that Greece will get its €2bn bailout loan at today’s eurogroup meeting.

That won’t please Michel Sapin, given his optimistic comments earlier. But it appears that Greece simply hasn’t done enough to satisfy lenders….

…in particular, over how to treat householders who can’t repay their mortgages. Athens and its creditors are still divided over which householders should be protected from foreclosure.

The WSJ’s Gabriele Steinhauser and Viktoria Dendrinou explains:

Senior officials from the currency union’s finance ministries were updated on Greece’s implementation of around 50 promised overhauls, known as milestones, during a conference call Sunday afternoon. While progress has been made on some issues—including measures to substitute a tax on private education, the governance of the country’s bailed-out banks and the treatment of overdue loans—Athens and its creditors will need more time to sign off on all overhauls, the officials said.

Greece needs the fresh loans to pay salaries and bills and settle domestic arrears. However, the government faces no immediate major payments to its international creditors, reducing the sense of urgency.

There will be “no agreement on [the] €2 billion,” one official said.

Updated

Drama at the CBI conference!

David Cameron’s speech has been briefly disrupted by protesters, chanting that the CBI is the “voice of Brussels”.

They’re clearly unhappy that Britain’s top business group is firmly in favour of EU membership:

Cameron handles it pretty well – suggesting they ask him a question rather than looking foolish.

Updated

Another important meeting is taking place in Brussels today.

UK business secretary Sajid Javid will discuss the crisis in Britain’s steel works with EU economy and industry ministers this afternoon.

Steel unions have urged Javid to demand a clampdown on cheap steel imports from China, which they blame for triggering thousands of job cuts across the UK steel industry:

Cameron at the CBI

David Cameron at the CBI
David Cameron at the CBI Photograph: Sky News

David Cameron is telling the CBI that he’s met business concerns, by cutting red tape and corporate taxes.

On infrastructure, he says the government has made progress – citing the planned HS2 railway – but admits there’s more to do.

We want to the most business friendly, enterprise friendly, government in the world, he adds. But the PM also acknowledges that Britain must do better on exports.

And he’s now outlining a new plan to give everyone guaranteed access to broadband, by 2020.

My colleague Andrew Sparrow is covering all the key points in his politics liveblog:

Heads-up: prime minister David Cameron is addressing the CBI’s annual conference in London. There’s a live feed here.

He’s expected to warn that he could consider campaigning to leave the EU, if his attempts to reform Britain’s relationship with Brussels is met with a ‘deaf ear’.

Updated

The prospect of yet another tussle over Greece’s bailout programme is casting a pall over Europe’s stock markets this morning.

The main indices are mainly in the red, as investors prepare to hear the dreaded phrase ‘eurogroup deadlock’ again.

European stock markets, early trading, November 09 2015
European stock markets this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Conner Campbell of SpreadEx says that Greece’s “sluggish progress” over implementing foreclosure rules is an unwelcome reminder of the eurozone’s lingering issues.

The country’s next €2 billion tranche, which should be signed off at today’s Eurogroup meeting, is currently being withheld by Greece’s creditors, who are dissatisfied with the way the region’s hot potato has (or hasn’t) implemented the required reforms.

It’ Déjà vu all over again, as China’s stock market is pushed up by stimulus hopes, and Greece’s bailout hits a snag.

Open Europe analyst Raoul Ruparel points out that today’s dispute is small potatoes, compared to the big challenge of cutting Greece’s debt pile.

Greece is also clashing with its creditors over plans to hike the tax rate for private education, as the Telegraph’s Mehreen Khan explains:

That’s a slightly unusual issue for a hard-left party to go to the barricades over, when it needs agreement with its lenders to unlock the big prize of debt relief.

Updated

France: We want a Greek deal today

French Finance minister Michel Sapin.
Michel Sapin. Photograph: Lionel Bonaventure/AFP/Getty Images

France is playing its traditional role as Greece’s ally, ahead of today’s meeting of eurozone finance chiefs.

French finance minister Michel Sapin has told reporters in Paris that he hopes an agreement can be reached today over the main outstanding hurdle — how to handle bad loans at Greek banks (as explained earlier).

Sapin offered Athens his support, saying:

Greece is making considerable efforts. They are scrupulously respecting the July agreement.

One thorny issue remains: the seizure of homes for households who can’t pay their debts. I want an agreement to be reached today. France wants an agreement today.

(thanks to Reuters for the quotes)

Updated

Greek journalist Nick Malkoutzis of Kathimerini tweets that the gloss is coming off Alexis Tsipras’s new administration:

Portuguese bond yields jump as leftists prepare for power

The prospect of a new anti-austerity government taking power in Portugal is hitting its government debt this morning.

The yield (or interest rate) on 10-year Portuguese bonds has risen from 2.67% to 2.77%, a ten-week high.

That’s not a major move, but a sign that investors are anxious about events in Lisbon.

Portuguese 10-year bond yields

Updated

This new dispute over Greece’s bailout comes three days before unions hold a general strike that could bring Athens to a standstill.

The main public and private sector unions have both called 24-hour walkouts for Thursday, to protest against the pension cuts and tax rises contained in its third bailout deal.

ADEDY, the civil servants union, accused the government of taking over “the role of redistributing poverty”.

Just six week after winning re-election, Alexis Tsipras is facing quite a wave of discontent….

Dow Jones: Ministers won’t release Greek aid today

The Dow Jones newswire is reporting that eurozone finance ministers definitely won’t agree to release Greece’s next aid tranche at today’s meeting, due to the lack of progress over its bailout measures:

Updated

Updated

Greek officials have already warned that the argument over legislation covering bad loans won’t be resolved easily.

One told Reuters that:

There is a distance with lenders on that [foreclosure] issue, and I don’t think that we will have an agreement soon.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras discussed the issue with Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday.

The official added that those talks were a step towards resolving the issue at “a political level”; Greek-speak for a compromise hammered out between leaders, rather than lowly negotiators.

Updated

Greek debt talks hit by foreclosure row

University students holding flares burn a European flag outside the Greek parliament during a protest in central Athens last Thursday.
University students holding flares burn a European flag outside the Greek parliament during a protest in central Athens last Thursday. Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP

After a couple of quiet months, Greece’s debt crisis has loomed back into the spotlight today.

A new dispute between Athens and her creditors is holding up the disbursement of Greece’s next aid tranche, worth €2bn.

Athens spent last weekend in a fevered attempt to persuade its creditors that it has met the terms agreed last summer, to qualify for the much-needed cash.

But it appears that lenders aren’t convinced, meaning that the payment won’t be signed off when eurogroup ministers meet in Brussels at 2pm today for a Eurogroup meeting.

The two sides are still arguing over new laws to repossess houses from people who are deep in arrears on their mortgage payments.

Athens is trying to dilute the terms agreed in July’s bailout deal, but eurozone creditors are sticking to their guns. They insist that Greek residences valued above €120,000 should be covered by the foreclosure laws, down from the current level of €200,000.

The Kathimerini newspaper explains:

The key stumbling block is primary residence foreclosures.

Greece has put forward stricter criteria that protects 60 percent of homeowners, while suggesting that this is then gradually reduced over the next years.

With a deal unlikely today, officials are now racing to get an agreement within 48 hours or so:

Greece told to break bailout deadlock by Wednesday

And Greece certainly needs the money, to settle overdue payments owed to hundreds of government suppliers who have been squeezed badly this year.

Updated

The Agenda: Markets see Fed hike looming

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Across the globe, investors are finally facing the prospect that the long run of record low interest rates is ending, at least in America.

There’s now a 70% chance that the US Federal Reserve hikes borrowing costs in next month’s meeting, according to this morning’s data.

This follows Friday’s strong US jobs report, which show 271,000 new positions created last month. With earnings rising too, Fed doves will probably be tempted to finally press the rate hike button at December’s meeting.

That is pushing up the dollar this morning, and weakening the euro. That will please the European Central Bank, as it ponders whether to launch its own new stimulus measures.

European stock markets are expected to inch higher at the open:

Also coming up….

  • The OECD will issue new economic forecasts at 10.30am GMT.
  • Britain’s business leaders are gathering in London for the CBI’s latest conference. The event is dominated by the UK’s “Brexit” referendum, and claims that the CBI is too pro-EU.
  • Eurozone finance ministers are holding a eurogroup meeting in Brussels this afternoon.

And there is fresh drama in the eurozone.

In Portugal, three left-wing parties have agreed to work together in a new “anti-austerity government”.

That will bring down minority administration created by Pedro Passos Coelho two weeks ago, after October’s inconclusive election.

And with Greece struggling to implement its own austerity measures, Europe’s problems are pushing up the agenda again.

We’ll be covering all the main events through the day….

Updated

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Seven years following the banking crisis, senior bankers are still moaning about over-regulation, but with the government still owning major stakes in banks this is no time to water down the rules. This is not a normal state for the banking industry…

 

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “The banking crash seven years on: it’s not yet business as usual” was written by Jill Treanor, for theguardian.com on Monday 12th October 2015 11.25 UTC

Seven years ago this week, Gordon Brown – the then prime minister – was in full combat mode. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and HBOS were on the brink of collapse and risked bringing down the rest of the financial system with them. Brown was left with little option but to step in with billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money to act as a “rock of stability” to prevent the financial sector collapsing.

The intervening years have led to soul-searching through inquiries and changes in the rules about the amount – and type – of capital banks must hold to protect against collapse. Rules about the way bonuses are paid to top bankers have changed: deferral and payment in shares are now the norm for the most senior bankers. Changes are also being made to the way banks are structured following the recommendations by the Independent Commission on Banking, chaired by Sir John Vickers.

The government still owns 73% of RBS, down from 79%, and is yet to get rid of all its shares in Lloyds Banking Group, formed when HBOS was rescued by Lloyds TSB during the crisis. This is not a normal state for the UK banking industry.

Yet senior bankers are moaning about the difficulties their businesses face because of regulation. John McFarlane, the chair of Barclays, is again talking about national champions in investment banking. He raised it in July and again this week by suggesting that a merger of European investment banks (£) might allow a regional champion to be created to compete with US rivals.

Such remarks may help explain why, just a few weeks ago, Paul Fisher, a senior Bank of England official, issued a warning against watering down the post-crisis rules. “We probably won’t know for sure just how effective the new regime is until we reach another crisis. Meanwhile, we need to guard against the reforms being rolled back as a result of a period without crisis,” Fisher told an audience in London.

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A £500m rise in cars shipped abroad fails to ease prospects of huge UK trade deficit in third quarter fueled by strong pound plus eurozone woes and declining oil industry. The significant improvement seen in Q2 now considered as “only temporary”…

 

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Car exports cut monthly UK trade deficit but quarterly gap is growing” was written by Phillip Inman Economics correspondent, for theguardian.com on Friday 9th October 2015 11.47 UTC

A rise in car exports helped improve Britain’s trade deficit in August, according to official figures.

The monthly shortfall in the trade balance for goods narrowed to £3.3bn from £4.4bn in July. However, the UK was still heading for a huge deficit in the third quarter of the year after an upward revision to July’s shortfall.

Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: “Even if the trade deficit held steady in September, this would still leave the deficit in the third quarter as a whole at around £11bn, far higher than the £3.5bn deficit recorded in the second quarter.”

He said this suggests that net trade is probably making “a significant negative contribution to GDP” at the moment.

Hollingsworth warned that the strong pound and weakness in demand overseas as the US economy stuttered and the eurozone remained in the doldrums meant the government’s hopes of a significant rebalancing towards manufacturing exports would be dashed in the near term.

Alongside the £500m rise in car exports in August, the chemicals industry sent more of its production to the US, the ONS said. Total goods exports increased by 3.5% to £23.6bn in August 2015 from £22.8bn in July 2015.

But this positive news was offset by the continued decline in Britain’s oil industry, which has been a major factor holding back progress this year.

Lower production and the lower oil price have dented exports, and though oil imports are likewise cheaper, they continue to rise in volume.

The mothballing and subsequent closure of the Redcar steel plant could also have had an impact as the export of basic materials dived in August by more than 10%.

The services sector recorded an improvement in its trade balance, but the ONS pointed out that the UK continued to rely heavily on the financial services industry to pay its way in the world.

Figures for the second quarter showed that the surplus on trade in services was £22.8bn, of which almost half – £10.1bn – was contributed by banks, insurers and the fund management industry.

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said the narrowing of the deficit in August was welcome, but taking the July and August figures together pointed towards a deterioration.

“This confirms our earlier assessment that the significant improvement seen in the second quarter was only temporary.

“The large trade deficit remains a major national problem. This is particularly true when we consider that other areas of our current account, notably the income balance, remain statistically insignificant.”

Kern urged the government to adopt measures that will “secure a long-term improvement in our trading position”.

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Finance institute forecasts net capital outflow from emerging markets for first time since 1988 leaving states vulnerable to capital drought. The IIF’s analysts say the current reversal is the latest wave of a homegrown downturn…

Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Global investors brace for China crash, says IIF” was written by Heather Stewart, for theguardian.com on Thursday 1st October 2015 18.34 UTC

Global investors will suck capital out of emerging economies this year for the first time since 1988, as they brace themselves for a Chinese crash, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Capital flooded into promising emerging economies in the years that followed the global financial crisis of 2008-09, as investors bet that rapid expansion in countries such as Turkey and Brazil could help to offset stodgy growth in the debt-burdened US, Europe and Japan.

But with domestic investors in these and other emerging markets squirrelling their money overseas, at the same time as international investors calculate the costs of a sharp downturn in Chinese growth, the IIF, which represents the world’s financial industry, said: “We now expect that net capital flows to emerging markets in 2015 will be negative for the first time since 1988.”

capital flows to emerging markets set to turn negative

Capital flows to emerging markets look set to turn negative. Photograph: IIF

Unlike in 2008-09, when capital flows to emerging markets plunged abruptly as a result of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, the IIF’s analysts say the current reversal is the latest wave of a homegrown downturn.

“This year’s slowdown represents a marked intensification of trends that have been underway since 2012, making the current episode feel more like a lengthening drought rather than a crisis event,” it says, in its latest monthly report on capital flows.

The IIF expects “only a moderate rebound” in 2016, as expectations for growth in emerging economies remain weak.

Mohamed El-Erian, economic advisor to Allianz, responding to the data, described emerging markets as “completely unhinged”, and warned that US growth may not be enough to rescue the global economy. “It’s not that powerful to pull everybody out,” he told CNBC.

Capital flight from China, where the prospects for growth have deteriorated sharply in recent months, and the authorities’ botched handling of the stock market crash in August undermined confidence in economic management, has been the main driver of the turnaround.

“The slump in private capital inflows is most dramatic for China,” the institute says. “Slowing growth due to excess industrial capacity, correction in the property sector and export weakness, together with monetary easing and the stock market bust have discouraged inflows.”

At the same time, domestic Chinese firms have been cutting back on their borrowing overseas, fearing that they may find themselves exposed if the yuan continues to depreciate, making it harder to repay foreign currency loans.

The IIF’s analysis shows that portfolio flows – sales of emerging market stocks and bonds – have been more important than the reversal of foreign direct investment (for example, multinationals closing down plants or business projects) in the recent shift.

It warns that several countries are likely to find their economies particularly vulnerable to this capital drought.

“Countries most in jeopardy from emerging-market turbulence include those with large current account deficits, questionable macro-policy frameworks, large corporate foreign exchange liabilities, and acute political uncertainties. Brazil and Turkey combine these features.

This warning echoed a one from the International Monetary Fund last week, that rising US interest rates could unleash a new financial crisis, as firms in emerging economies find themselves unable to service their debts.

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Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Greece debt crisis: ECB tightens screw ahead of emergency eurozone summit – as it happened” was written by Graeme Wearden (now), Nick Fletcher, Paul Farrell and Helen Davidson (all earlier), for theguardian.com on Monday 6th July 2015 20.50 UTC

And here’s Tuesday’s Guardian — complete with Yanis Varoufakis leaving the building…

Just one more thing… the front pages of the UK newspapers. And tomorrow’s crunch summit makes the front of the Financial Times:

While Angela Merkel’s hard-ish line on Greece is the splash in the Daily Telegraph:

I wonder what’s on the front page of Tuesday’s Guardian. Stay tuned….

Updated

Closing summary: Last chance for Greek deal looms

We’re been live-blogging the reaction to Sunday’s Greek referendum for around 21 hours now. It’s time to wrap up and give the Guardian web servers a rest.

So, a final recap.

Greece and the eurozone will make one last, desperate attempt to make progress towards an urgently needed bailout deal on Tuesday.

Leaders, and finance ministers, will both hold crucial meetings in Brussels, after Sunday’s referendum result raised the risks of Grexit to new heights. It’s a final chance for Greece to propose a new reform plan that could start the ball rolling towards a new aid package, but the journey looks perilous.

The leaders of France and Germany are scrambling to reach a consensus tonight in Paris, at a top-level meeting about Greece (photos here).

Greece’s prime minister has held telephone calls with the heads of the International Monetary Fund and also the European Central Bank. Alexis Tsipras told Mario Draghi that the capital controls in Greece need to be lifted, but was told by Christine Lagarde that the IMF cannot released more funds now Athens is in arrears.

Earlier, Francois Hollande insisted that there was time to reach a deal. Angela Merkel sounded less optimistic, though, warning that there was currently no basis for an agreement. Press conference highlights start here.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel makes a statement with French President Francois Hollande during a press conference after their meeting at the Elysee Palace on July 06, 2015 in Paris, France. Angela Merkel met Francois Hollande to discuss Greece’s situation in the European Union in a post-referendum environment.

Spain’s PM warned that time was now very short, while Dutch leader Mark Rutte said Greece must accept deep reforms to keep its place in the eurozone.

Analysts aren’t convinced that progress will be made tomorrow….

The European Central Bank has tightened the rules for giving emergency funding to Greek banks tonight. It is now imposing tougher haircuts on the assets they hand over, restricting their ability to access the funding.

The ECB also reportedly rejected a request for €3bn in extra ELA support:

This means Greek banks will remain shut for at least two more days, after capital controls were extended until the end of Wednesday.

Over in Greece, Alexis Tsipras has mobilised the leaders of the main opposition parties to support him. They signed a joint statement, saying Sunday’s referendum showed Greece’s desire for a “socially just and economically sustainable agreement”.

There’s talk of a new mood of national unity, but it could be swiftly shattered.

Tsipras has also passed the honour/poisoned chalice of being Greece’s finance minister to Euclid Tsakalotos, following Yanis Varoufakis’s resignation this morning.

Tsakalotos was sworn in tonight, and will represent Greece at Tuesday’s eurogroup meeting. He’s unlikely to don a tie for the occasion, though. Here’s our profile of Euclid.

Varoufakis has denied tonight that he was a sacrifical lamb, having exited the finance ministry in classic style today:

Outgoing Greek Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis leaves onto his motorcycle with his wife Danai after his resignation at the ministry of Finance in downtown Athens on July 6 2015. Varoufakis resigned in what appeared to be a concession by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to international creditors after his resounding victory in a historic bailout referendum. AFP PHOTO / LOUISA GOULIAMAKILOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

In the UK, George Osborne has warned that the risks to the UK are rising. Britain is already providing more consular support in Greece for expats and holidaymakers, and help for businesses struggling to trade with Greek firms.


Video: George Osborne in parliament

And Fitch has warned that the risks of Greece leaving the eurozone are much higher, after last night’s resounding No.

I’ll pop back into the blog if there are any major developments — otherwise, please tune in tomorrow morning for more. Thanks, and goodnight. GW

Updated

Alexis Tsipras has discussed the Greek banking sector’s liquidity issues with ECB president Mario Draghi tonight.

Tsipras also raised the “immediate need” to lift capital controls during the phone call, according to a government spokesman quoted on Reuters.

Our europe editor, Ian Traynor, sums up the situation tonight:

Germany and France scrambled to avoid a major split over Greece on Monday evening as the eurozone delivered a damning verdict on Alexis Tsipras’s landslide referendum victory on Sunday and Angela Merkel demanded that the Greek prime minister put down new proposals to break the deadlock.

As concerns mount that Greek banks will run out of cash and about the damage being inflicted on the country’s economy, hopes for a breakthrough faded. EU leaders voiced despair and descended into recrimination over how to respond to Sunday’s overwhelming rejection of eurozone austerity terms as the price for keeping Greece in the currency.

Tsipras, meanwhile, moved to insure himself against purported eurozone plots to topple him and force regime change by engineering a national consensus of the country’s five mainstream parties behind his negotiating strategy, focused on securing debt relief.

Tsipras also sacrificed his controversial finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, in what was seen as a conciliatory signal towards Greece’s creditors.

In Paris, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President François Hollande tried to plot a common strategy after Greeks returned a resounding no to five years of eurozone-scripted austerity. The two leaders were trying to find a joint approach to the growing crisis ahead of an emergency eurozone summit on Tuesday to deal with the fallout.

But Merkel said there was no current basis for negotiating with the Greek side and called on Tsipras to make the next move.

As eurozone leaders prepared for today’s emergency summit in Brussels , the heads of government were at odds. France, Italy and Spain are impatient for a deal while Germany, the European commission and northern Europe seem content to let Greece stew andallow the euphoria following Sunday’s vote give way to the sobering realities of bank closures, cash shortages and isolation…..

Here’s the full story.

The logo of the International Monetary Fund.

Christine Lagarde spoke to Alexis Tsipras today, and explained that the International Monetary Fund can no longer provide money to Greece after it failed to repay €1.6bn last week.

Under IMF rules, once a country is in arrears, fresh funds cannot be supplied, a spokesman explained (via Reuters)

Hat-tip to Sky News’s Ed Conway for getting into Yanis Varoufakis’s leaving bash tonight and grabbing a quick interview.

Greece’s finance minister denied that he’d sacrificed himself, declaring:

“No, no, this is politics, mate. There are no sacrificial lambs.

Varoufakis added that he’ll rest on Tuesday, but is bound to offer advice from the sidelines.

Tuesday’s edition of the Guardian will carry many letters from readers about the Greek crisis, expressing support for Greece at this time.

Guardian Letters: Athens has reinvented our vision of democracy

Italy’s finance minister has suggested that the eurozone is willing to consider a new aid programme for Greece:

Pier Carlo Padoan told Canale 5 television.

“The 18 (other countries in the euro) are open to re-considering a Greek request which can only be a request for a new programme, not a continuation of the old one,”

Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has echoed Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande tonight, by warning that time is very short:

Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte has warned Greece it must decide whether it wants to remain in the eurozone, and accept the ‘deep reforms’ needed.

He told MPs tonight that Athens must deliver acceptable proposals to its creditors.

If things stay the way they are, then we’re at an impasse. There is no other choice, they must be ready to accept deep reforms.”

A Greek insider has told Reuters that the European Central Bank hiked the haircut on Greek assets by around 10%, but the impact will be ‘minimal’.

So the ECB hasn’t pulled the plug, yet…..

Updated

Greece Facing Uncertain Future After Rejecting EU Proposals<br />ATHENS, GREECE – JULY 6: People line up at an ATM machine outside a bank on July 6, 2015 in Athens Greece. Politicians in Europe and Greece are planning emergency talks after Greek voters rejected EU proposals to pay back it’s creditors creating an uncertain future for Greece. Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigned hours after the vote saying that it was felt his departure would be helpful in finding a solution.. ( Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)” width=”1000″ height=”600″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=People line up at an ATM machine outside a bank in Athens today. Photograph: Milos Bicanski/Getty Images

AFP has a good summary of the situation in Greece’s banking sector:

Greek banks to stay closed Tuesday and Wednesday

Greek banks will remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday with limits on daily withdrawals unchanged, officials said on Monday as the European Central Bank maintained its liquidity assistance to the nation’s beleaguered lenders.

“Until Wednesday evening we continue as things stand today,” said Louka Katseli, chairwoman of the National Bank of Greece.

Speaking on behalf of the association of Greek banks, she added:

“If there is a decision by the European Central Bank in the meantime enabling us to modify this decision, there will be a new decision.”

The European Central Bank’s governing council decided to maintain the emergency liquidity assistance keeping Greek banks afloat at the level set on June 26, the Frankfurt-based bank said in a statement.

But the ECB said it had also “adjusted” the collateral demanded from Greek banks in return for the assistance.

“The financial situation of the Hellenic Republic has an impact on Greek banks since the collateral they use in ELA relies to a significant extent on government-linked assets…

“In this context, the governing council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA,” the ECB added, without specifying the level.

Capital controls were enacted on June 28, limiting ATM withdrawals by Greeks to €60 per account daily after a referendum on bailout terms sparked a run on deposits.

The Bank of Greece had requested an increase in emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) and that request was the subject of the ECB meeting, held a day after 61% of Greeks voted against further austerity measures in Sunday’s plebiscite.

ELA is currently the only source of financing for Greek banks, and therefore the Greek economy. But with Greece’s bailout programme now officially expired and in the absence of any new programme, the conditions for its continuation are no longer met.

But analysts believe the ECB will not want to be the one to pull the plug on Greece and force the country out of the single currency.

Updated

The Euro symbol in Willy Brandt Square, Frankfurt, on the first day of its restoration. The euro symbol will go through a four days restoration, starting on the day after Greece have voted ‘No’ to the EU, the ECB and the IMF policies, generating uncertainties on the monetary sign future. --- Image by © Horacio Villalobos/Corbis
The Euro symbol in Willy Brandt Square, Frankfurt, on the first day of its four-day restoration. Photograph: Horacio Villalobos/Corbis
Euro symbol in Willy Brandt Square, on the first day of its restoration.<br />06 Jul 2015, Frankfurt, Germany — Workers toil on the euro symbol in Willy Brandt Square, Frankfurt, Germany, 06 July 2015, during the first day of its restoration. The euro symbol will go through a four days restoration, starting on the day after Greece have voted ‘No’ to the EU, the ECB and the IMF policies, generating uncertainties on the monetary sign future. — Image by © Horacio Villalobos/Corbis” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /> </figure>
</p></div>
<p class=Updated

Two members of the ECB’s governing council pushed for Greece’s banking sector to be hit with even tougher measures, according to Claire Jones of the Financial Times.

She writes:

The ECB refused to disclose the size of the new haircuts, but all four of Greece’s main banks are thought still to have enough collateral available to roll over their emergency loans.

Two people on the governing council objected to the decision, according to Eurosystem sources. Both of the objectors wanted the ECB to take stronger measures.

That implies either an even higher haircut (putting Greek banks in greater peril), lowering the ELA cap (ditto), or terminating ELA off (which would be game over for Greek banks).

The ECB may not have pulled the trigger on Greek banks tonight, but it is reserving the right to take a shot if Tuesday’s emergency summit doesn’t deliver any progress.

Updated

Confused? Try this….

This graph is crucial to understanding what the ECB did tonight.

By raising the haircut applied on assets from Greek banks, it cuts the amount of emergency liquidity that can be handed back in return. Every time the haircut goes up, the ‘value’ of the assets that can be used to access ELA falls.

So, to simplify the issue, each €1bn of Greek assets might have yielded €520m of emergency cash yesterday, but tomorrow it might only be good for €480m, for example (figures plucked out of the air).

Raise the haircut high enough, and Greek banks simply can’t qualify for extra assistance at all.

Updated

The European Central Bank has just raised the risk of a Greek bank going under, argues George Hay, European Financial Editor at Reuters Breakingviews.

ECB hits Greek banks with tougher haircuts

Finally, the European Central Bank has announced its decision on the emergency support it provides to Greek banks.

And the ECB has maintained the cap on emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) at €89bn, but crucially it has “adjusted” the haircuts it applies to the assets which Greek banks hand over in return for funds.

In simple terms, that probably means the ECB is treating Greek government bonds as riskier, and valuing them as such when it calculates how much liquidity it can provide.

It’s another tightening of the screw on Greece – meaning some banks may find it even tougher to qualify for emergency liquidity assistance.

Here’s the full statement:

ELA to Greek banks maintained

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today to maintain the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on 26 June 2015 after discussing a proposal from the Bank of Greece.

ELA can only be provided against sufficient collateral.

The financial situation of the Hellenic Republic has an impact on Greek banks since the collateral they use in ELA relies to a significant extent on government-linked assets.

In this context, the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.

The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area. The Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.

More reaction to follow…

Updated

Crisis meeting in Paris between French President and German Chancellor<br />epa04834368 French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel deliver a speech to the press following a crisis meeting at the Elysee Palace regarding Greece, in Paris, France, 06 July 2015. Speaking after a bilateral meeting in Paris, Hollande drew attention to the fact that ‘time is running out,’ while Merkel said it was up to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to come up with proposals on the way forward at the eurozone summit. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=Merkel and Hollande tonight. Photograph: Etienne Laurent/EPA

Merkel returns to her favourite theme – that European solidarity and responsibility are linked.

Europe can only hold itself together if each country takes responsibility for itself, she says, insisting that Greece got a generous offer in the past.

Merkel: No basis for negotiations yet

Angela Merkel agrees that the door to talks with Greece is still open, despite yesterday’s No vote.

But Greece must put its proposals on the table this week. As things stand, there is no basis for talks on a new programme under the European Stability Mechanism (ie, a new aid programme)

Hollande also speaks of the values that hold Europe together. It is not just a monetary and finance construction.

Hollande: the door is still open to Greece

Francois Hollande sounds quite conciliatory, telling the audience in Paris that France and Germany respect the vote of the Greek people yesterday.

The door is still open to talks for Alexis Tsipras to make serious proposals.

Tomorrow’s eurozone crisis summit will allow Europe to define its position, based on the Greek proposals, he says, adding that time is running very short.

Updated

Merkel-Hollande press conference

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande are speaking to the press now, following their talks on the Greek crisis.

Here’s some photos of Euclid Tsakalotos being sworn in as finance minister tonight:

Swearing in of new Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos<br />epa04834322 Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos (C) and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (L) during the swearing-in ceremony of new Greek Finance Minister Euclides Tsakalotos (R) at the Presidential Palace in Athens, Greece, 06 July 2015. Greek voters resoundingly rejected bailout terms in a referendum on 05 July. Athens said it was willing to resume talks with international creditors, and eurozone leaders were planning an emergency summit on 07 July to tackle the crisis. EPA/ARMANDO BABANI” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos (centre) and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (left) during the swearing-in ceremony of new Greek Finance Minister Euclides Tsakalotos (right). Photograph: Armando Babani/EPA
Swearing in of new Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos<br />epa04834287 New Greek Finance Minister Euclides Tsakalotos during his swearing-in ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Athens, Greece, 06 July 2015. Greek voters resoundingly rejected bailout terms in a referendum on 05 July. Athens said it was willing to resume talks with international creditors, and eurozone leaders were planning an emergency summit on 07 July to tackle the crisis. EPA/ARMANDO BABANI” width=”831″ height=”1000″ class=”gu-image” /> </figure>
<figure class= Prokopis Pavlopoulos, Euclid Tsakalotos<br />Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos, left, shakes hands with the new Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos during the swearing in ceremony at Presidential Palace in Athens, Monday, July 6, 2015. Following Sunday’s referendum the Greece and its membership in Europe’s joint currency faced an uncertain future Monday, with the country under pressure to restart bailout talks with creditors as soon as possible after Greeks resoundingly rejected the notion of more austerity in exchange for aid. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)” width=”1000″ height=”600″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class= Photograph: Petros Karadjias/AP

Tsakalotos has an engagingly dressed-down style, even for a member of the current Greek government (frankly, he could pass for a eurocrisis liveblogger).

But he did make one concession to the majesty of the occasion…..

The US government has urged Europe and Greece to seek a compromise that will avoid Grexit.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said it was in the best interests of America, and Europe, that the Greek crisis is solved. It is a “European challenge to solve”, he added.

Here’s a video clip of UK finance minister George Osborne updating the British parliament on the Greek crisis today:


Video: Greece referendum: government will protect UK economy, says George Osborne

Osborne has been criticised for not backing calls for Greece to be given debt relief.

Jonathan Stevenson, campaigns officer at the Jubilee Debt Campaign, said:

“The Chancellor was today given several opportunities by MPs from all parties to add his voice to calls for Greek debt cancellation, but he refused to take it. By sitting on the fence, rather than making the case for debt cancellation, he is failing to use his influence to help resolve this crisis, and thereby selling the people of Britain short.

The French stock market suffered from the Greek crisis today, with the CAC index shedding 2%.

Germany’s DAX fell by 1.5%, while in London the FTSE 100 index fell 50 points of 0.7%.

So, electronic red ink everywhere – but not a really serious selloff, given the scale of the shock last night when the referendum results came through.

Tsakalotos sworn in as finance minister

The deed is done. Euclid Tsakalotos has just been sworn in as the new Greek finance minister, by president Prokopis Pavlopoulos.

Updated

This Google Trends data shows how Greeks have been searching for information on leaving the eurozone, and on the implication of yesterday’s referendum:

Google Trends
Photograph: Google
Google Trends
Photograph: Google

Updated

Photos: Merkel and Hollande begin Greek talks

Over in Paris, Francois Hollande has welcomed Angela Merkel to the Elysee Palace for crisis talks about Greece, following yesterday’s referendum.

After a brief smile for the camera, they swiftly got down to business. We’re expecting a joint statement from the two leaders before dinner.

French President Francois Hollande welcomes German Chancellor Angela Merkel before talks and a dinner at the Elysee Palace in Paris
French President Francois Hollande welcomes German Chancellor Angela Merkel before talks and a dinner at the Elysee Palace in Paris Photograph: Philippe Wojazer/Reuters
Crisis meeting in Paris between French President and German Chancellor<br />epa04834201 German Chancellor Angela Merkel (2-L) attends a crisis meeting with French President Francois Hollande (unseen) at the Elysee Palace regarding Greece, in Paris, France, 06 July 2015. The leaders met for talks on Greece in the aftermath of the referendum. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT / POOL MAXPPP OUT” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class= Photograph: ETIENNE LAURENT / POOL/EPA
Crisis meeting in Paris between French President and German Chancellor
Photograph: ETIENNE LAURENT / POOL/EPA

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has insisted that it didn’t have any “personal problems” with Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s former finance minister.

But it is true that the other euro finance ministers didn’t share Varoufakis’s opinion on many points, Schäuble added.

(that’s via Associated Press)

Here’s Reuters first take on the news that Greek banks won’t reopen tomorrow:

Greek banks will remain closed on Tuesday and Wednesday and a daily limit on cash withdrawals will stay at €60, the head of the Greek banking association said.

Greek banks were shuttered all last week after the collapse of negotiations on an aid deal and had officially been due to reopen on Tuesday, before Greeks voted resoundingly to reject bailout terms sought by creditors in a referendum on Sunday.

“We decided to extend the bank holiday by two days – Tuesday and Wednesday,” Louka Katseli said after a meeting with finance ministry and banking representatives.

GREECE-ATHENS-BAILOUT<br />06 Jul 2015, Athens, Attica, Greece — (150706) — ATHENS, July 6, 2015 (Xinhua) — Greek pensioners without bank cards line up outside bank to withdraw up to 120 euros for the week, in Athens, July 6, 2015. Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos convened political leaders for a meeting to design new strategy after the no victory in the July 5 referendum on bailout terms. (Xinhua/Marios Lolos) (dzl) — Image by © Marios Lolos/Xinhua Press/Corbis” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=Greek pensioners without bank cards line up outside bank to withdraw up to 120 euros for the week, in Athens today. Photograph: Marios Lolos/Xinhua Press/Corbis

Who is Euclid Tsakalotos anyway?

File photo of Varoufakis and Tsakalotos leaving the Maximos Mansion after a meeting with PM Tsipras in Athens<br />Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis (front) and deputy minister for international economic relations Euclid Tsakalotos leave the Maximos Mansion after a meeting with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (not pictured) in Athens in this April 3, 2015 file photo. Tsakalotos will be sworn in as finance minister on July 6, 2015 after the resignation of Varoufakis, a Greek presidency source said. REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis/Files” width=”1000″ height=”667″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=Euclid Tsakalotos isn’t in the back seat any more…. Photograph: Alkis Konstantinidis / Reuter/Reuters

Last month, our Athens correspondent Helena Smith explained how the “Phlegmatic, professorial, mild-mannered” Euclid Tsakalotos could be the key to reaching a breakthrough in the Greek crisis.

And as Tsakalotos is Greece’s new finance minister, this theory is about to be tested…..

Here’s a flavour:

The son of a civil engineer who worked in the well-heeled world of Greek shipping, Tsakalotos was born in Rotterdam in 1960. When his family relocated to London, he was immediately enrolled at the exclusive London private school St Paul’s. A place at Oxford, where he studied PPE, ensued. The hurly burly world of radical left politics could not have been further away.

“My grandfather’s cousin was general Thrasyvoulos Tsakalotos who led the other side, the wrong side, in the Greek civil war,” he said of the bloody conflict that pitted communists against rightists between 1946-49.

“He expressed the fear that I might end up as a liberal, certainly not anything further to the left”…

Perish the thought…

Here’s the full piece:

The risk of Greece sliding towards a disorderly exit from the eurozone has “dramatically” increased following the No vote in last night’s referendum.

So warns rating agency Fitch tonight:

An agreement between Greece and its official creditors remains possible, but time is short and the risk of policy missteps, or that the two sides simply cannot agree a deal, is high.

Fitch adds that it will be “difficult” to reaching a deal before 20 July, when Greece must repay €3.5bn to the ECB.

New finance minister to be sworn in tonight.

(FILES) In this file picture taken on June 15, 2015 Greek minister of International Economic Relations Euclidis Tsakalotos arrives for a meeting at the Prime minister’s office in Athens. Greece on July 6, 2015 named economist Euclid Tsakalotos, its top negotiator in the stalled EU-IMF talks, as the country’s new finance minister, the president’s office said. AFP PHOTO / ARIS MESSINISARIS MESSINIS/AFP/Getty Images
Photograph: Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images

The Greek government has announced that the new finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, will be sworn in by the Greek president at 8pm this evening (6pm BST).

This will allow the Oxford-educated economist to attend tomorrow’s eurogroup meeting and present Greece’s case.

And his first task will be to approve a two-day extension to Greece’s capital controls, meaning banks stay shut until Thursday:

Updated

Greek banks to stay shut

Newsflash: Greece’s banks will not reopen on Tuesday, or indeed on Wednesday, according to the head of the Greek bank association.

The daily withdrawal limit remains at €60.

A couple more lines from George Osborne’s statement to parliament on Greece.

He tells MPs that Britain has sent tax officials out on secondment in recent years, to assist with revenue collection.

Unfortunately, tax collection has “almost dried up” since the crisis escalated.

And the chancellor says Britain can’t suspend pension payments to expats in Greece, to protect them from capital controls. That would risk triggering financial problems, if people had set up rent payments, and suchlike.

And the worst thing for Britain, and the world, would be a completely disorderly situation in the next few weeks. That’s why we are urging all sides to reach a solution.

(FILES) In this file picture taken on March 7, 2015 guest speaker Euclid Tsakalotos of Greek Syriza party addresses the Republican party Sinn Fein annual conference in Londonderry, Northern Ireland. Greece on July 6, 2015 named economist Euclid Tsakalotos, its top negotiator in the stalled EU-IMF talks, as the country’s new finance minister, the president’s office said. AFP PHOTO / PAUL FAITHPAUL FAITH/AFP/Getty Images
Back in March, Euclid Tsakalotos addressed the Republican party Sinn Fein annual conference in Londonderry, Northern Ireland. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty Images

Back in Greece, Euclid Tsakalotos is being appointed as Greece’s new finance minister to replace Yanis Varoufakis, as had been rumoured.

One official told Reuters:

“Tsakalotos will be sworn in with the political oath as finance minister,”

As mentioned earlier, Tsakalotos is known as the brain behind Syriza’s economics policies, and has been handling the day-to-day negotiations with creditors for the last couple of months.

Updated

Labour MP Gisela Stuart asks:

Does Britain have any plans to fly euros into Greece to pay our pensioners, if they cannot get money out of the cash machines?

Osborne says that Britain has “a number of contingency plans, and we just hope we don’t have to put them into operation.”

Two years ago, when Cyprus imposed capital controls, Britain flew out large quantities of euros in military planes to pay soldiers based in the country.

Andrew Tyrie, a senior MP who chairs Britain’s influential Treasury Committee, asks George Osborne if he agrees that Greece can never repay all its debt, or return to sustainable growth at the current eurozone exchange rate.

Shouldn’t Greece issue its own currency?

Osborne won’t be tempted to give an opinion. We don’t like it when other counties tell Britain what currency to use, so it’s up to Greece to decide its own currency.

But, the challenge is balancing Greece’s desire to stay in the euro with the conditions that other eurozone members wish to put on it, he adds.

Osborne sums up the challenge facing Greece rather neatly.

There are two different timetables, the chancellor says — the political one, of meetings and negotiations to reach a possible deal, which proceeds quite slowly.

And there is the situation in the Greek banking sector, which is moving at a much faster pace.

The challenge for the eurozone and the challenge for greece is to bring those timetables together.

George Osborne says that tomorrow’s eurogroup and eurozone leaders meetings are crucial for Greece, although tonight’s Franco-German meeting (between Merkel and Hollande) is also important.

Chris Leslie, the shadow chancellor, warns that the European Union faces its most “fundamental test” in a generation.

George Osborne
George Osborne in parliament today Photograph: BBC Parliament

Osborne: Risks to Britain from Greece are growing

George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, is speaking in parliament now.

He met with prime minister David Cameron and Bank of England governor Mark Carney earlier today.

Osborne warns MPs that the prospects of a happy ending in Greece are diminishing, while the risks to Britain from Greece are growing, so it’s right to remain vigilant.

The financial situation in Greece will “deteriorate rapidly” if there is no sign of agreement at tomorrow’s talks.

Osborne says:

This is a critical moment in the economic crisis in Greece. No-one should be under any illusions. The situation risks going from bad to worse…

Osborne tells MPs that the UK government will continue to pay state pensions to expats in Greece “in the normal way” , but also warns that tourists should take sufficient money, and medicines, to cover their stay.

The government has already been in touch with 2,000 pensioners to help them switch to UK bank accounts.

The Department for Business is providing advice to firms having problems dealing with companies in Greece, he adds.

And Britain is boosting its consular operations in Greece.

Updated

With his duties at the finance ministry over, Yanis Yaroufakis can now turn his attention to more mundane issues – like his new book.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (C) Minister of State Nikos Pappas (L) and Government spokesman Gavriil Sakellaridis (2-R) leave the Presidential Palace after a meeting with party leaders in Athens on July 6, 2015. Germany dismissed Greece’s bid to clinch a quick, new debt deal after the country delivered a resounding ‘No’ to more austerity measures, appearing little moved by the surprise resignation of the Greek finance minister.IAKOVOS HATZISTAVROU/AFP/Getty Images
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (C) Minister of State Nikos Pappas (left) and Government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis (second right) leaving the Presidential Palace after a meeting with party leaders in Athens today. Photograph: Iakovos Hatzistavrou/AFP/Getty Images

What does yesterday’s No vote mean for Europe? How can Angela Merkel respond? Will the departure of Yanis Varoufakis help?

Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland and economics editor Larry Elliott explain all, in barely 180 seconds…..


Video: Three-minute update: the Greeks have spoken. What now for the rest of Europe?

German media are reporting that Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel have telephoned (as we flagged earlier), with both leaders agreeing that Greece will bring new proposals with him to the Euro group meeting which may help to overcome the crisis.

Further details of what they discussed have yet to emerge.

Also, a Spiegel correspondent in Greece, Giorgis Christides, is reporting that paper supplies are running out in Greece, with newspaper publishers saying they had enough paper left to print only up until next Sunday.

One publishing manager has even proposed halting the printing of books, until the shortage eases.

IMF "stands ready to assist Greece"

Lagarde sits for an interview at IMF headquarters in Washington.
Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has just issued a short statement on Greece:

“The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so.”

Snap reaction: Greece heading towards national unity?

The fact that the leaders of three Greek opposition parties have agreed to back prime minister Alexis Tsipras in the debt negotiations is an important development.

The strong No vote in Sunday’s referendum has strengthened Tsipras’s position, as he heads to Brussels tomorrow.

As well as representing his Syriza-ANEL administration, Tsipras now has the backing of New Democracy, To Potami and Pasok.

That only leaves the KKE communist party on the sidelines, and the extreme right-wing Golden Dawn.

Commentators reckon it could be the first step towards a new ‘national unity’ administration to tackle the crisis.

UK chancellor George Osborne due to address the UK parliament on the Greek situation shortly. My colleague Andrew Sparrow is covering it all in his politics liveblog.

The centre-left Pasok party has also agreed to back Alexis Tsipras in the looming debt negotiations.

Fofi Genimata, Pasok’s leader, did criticise the PM for only rallying support “at the eleventh hour”.

New Democracy, the centre-right opposition party, will also sign the common statement expressing support for Alexis Tsipras in negotiations with lenders.

ND was represented by Vangelis Meimaraki at today’s meeting, following the resignation of leader Antonis Samaras last night.

Meimaraki criticised Tsipras for calling today’s meeting so late, and said the PM bears responsibility for the crisis. But crucially, he did still sign the statement:

Ah, it appears that the communist KKE party will not support this joint statement from Greece’s political leaders:

(that’s Kammenos in the middle)

Greek political leaders to release joint statement

The meeting of Greece’s political leaders is breaking up in Athens, after more than six hours.

And Panos Kammenos, the head of the right-wing ANEL party which is coalition with Alexis Tsiprass’ Syriza, is telling reporters that the leaders will release a “joint statement”.

That will be a written assurance that the opposition leaders support Tsipras in his negotiations with creditors, Kammenos says – along with a reference to debt relief.

Stavros Theodorakis of the centrist To Potami party is also speaking. He confirms that a common statement will be drawn up. ahead of Tuesday’s emergency eurozone summit.

Updated

US stock markets have opened after the July 4 holiday long weekend and so far reaction to the Greek crisis is muted.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all down around 0.5% in early trading.

So far US investors have largely shrugged off the Greek crisis and it looks like they same mood will prevail today. But anything can happen. During the last Euro-crisis US markets went on a roller coaster ride as investors worried about “contagion” and Greek woes spreading across Europe.

Yanis, we’re going to miss you

Alexis Tsipras must bring serious proposals to Brussels tomorrow to tackle the crisis created by his referendum, says German MEP Manfred Weber.

Weber, who chairs the centre-right EPP Group in the European Parliament, has also tweeted his concern that the “No” victory will drive nationalism in Europe.

The heads of Greece’s political parties are still meeting with president Pavlopoulos, as they discuss their response to Sunday’s referendum.

Simon Marks of MNI is tweeting from outside the talks:

Yanis Varoufakis does know how to make an exit (if not a Grexit)…..

Greece’s maverick finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who announced his surprise resignation leaves the Ministry of Finance with his wife Danai on the back of a motorbike in downtown Athens, on July 6 2015. Germany dismissed Greece’s bid to clinch a quick new debt deal after the country delivered a resounding ‘No’ to more austerity, appearing little moved by the surprise resignation of the Greek finance minister. AFP PHOTO / ANDREAS SOLAROANDREAS SOLARO/AFP/Getty Images
Greece’s maverick finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who announced his surprise resignation leaves the Ministry of Finance with his wife Danae on the back of a motorbike in downtown Athens. Photograph: Andreas Solaro/AFP/Getty Images
Greece’s maverick finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who announced his surprise resignation leaves the Ministry of Finance with his wife Danai on the back of a motorbike in downtown Athens, on July 6 2015.
Photograph: Andreas Solaro/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Bank closures could continue for a few more days – report

BREAKING:

Greece will issue a new decree today to extend the bank holiday for a few more days, bankers are telling Reuters.

Greece to present new proposals on Tuesday

Sigmar Gabriel’s warning that Greece faces insolvency came as Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel ended their telephone call.

Greek officials say that Tsipras agreed to present a “comprehensive” Greek proposal for an aid deal at Tuesday’s emergency leaders summit.

Updated

Germany’s vice chancellor is warning that a third Greek bailout would include taxing conditions, as it would be issued under the European Stability Mechanism:

Gabriel is also worried that other bailed-out eurozone nations will demand help, if they see Greece getting relief:

Greece threatened with insolvency, says Germany’s Gabriel

The hard line from Germany continues.

Deputy chancellor and economy minister Sigmar Gabriel has said Greece is now threatened with insolvency. And if it wants to stay in the eurozone it has to present proposals that go beyond what it has offered before.

Yanis Varoufakis says he hopes Euclid Tsakalotos gets the hot seat in the finance ministry.

Euclid does have decent credentials; a PhD in economics from Oxford, followed by academic postings, and a reputation as the “big brain” of Syriza’s economic policy making.

Standard Chartered has already said his appointment would make a positive outcome more likely (see here)

And he’ll have lots to talk to the UK chancellor about, too:

Updated

The Kremlin has issued a brief statement on the telephone call between Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin:

On Greece’s initiative, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras.

Mr Putin and Mr Tsipras discussed the results of the Greek referendum on international creditors’ conditions for providing financial aid to Athens, and discussed several matters concerning further development of bilateral cooperation.

Mr Putin expressed his support for the Greek people in overcoming the country’s current difficulties.

Was it the Daily Telegraph that did it?

The Wall Street Journal has an intriguing theory to explain Yanis Varoufakis’s shock resignation this morning.

They say that Alexis Tsipras decided to jettison his finance minister after he told the Telegraph that Greece could start issuing its own IOU notes to run alongside the euro, if the liquidity squeeze choking Greece isn’t lifted.

Here’s that interview:

Daily Telegraph: Defiant Greeks reject EU demands as Syriza readies IOU currency

Lunchtime summary

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, second from right, arrives for a Greek political leaders meeting in Athens this morning.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, second from right, arrives for a Greek political leaders meeting in Athens this morning. Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP

Time for a recap.

Yanis Varoufakis has ended a dramatic five-month stint as Greece’s finance minister, resigning just hours after Greece delivered a resounding No to the bailout conditions pushed by the country’s creditors.

Varoufakis said he fell on his sword after being:

made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my … ‘absence’ from its meetings.

And he remained resolute to the end, declaring:

I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.

He also hailed last night’s referendum results as “a unique moment when a small European nation rose up against debt-bondage.”

His successor hasn’t been announced yet; Euclid Tsakalotos, who took over day-to-day management of negotiations, is one frontrunner.

Greek leaders have been locked in talks for hours this morning, discussing their next move.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has been busy – he’s speaking with German chancellor Angela Merkel right now.

Earlier, he held a phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The scale of yesterday’s No vote has stunned Europe this morning, as leaders prepare for Tuesday’s emergency summit.

Italy’s Matteo Renzi has just posted on Facebook that Europe must find permanent solution to the Greek crisis and go beyond austerity.

But European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis has warned that the No vote makes the situation even more complicated.

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande are due to meet tonight in Paris to discuss the crisis. UK prime minister David Cameron has already held a meeting in London to discuss the impact on Britain response.

The Greek banking system continues to creak after a week of capital controls; some ATM machines are now only dispensing €50 per day, rather than the €60 limit.

The European Central Bank will hold a conference call later to discuss the emergency liquidity assistance it provides to Greece, which was capped eight days ago.

In the European markets, shares have fallen as the threat of a disorderly Grexit rises.

Here’s the situation at lunchtime in the City:

  • FTSE 100: down 40 points at 6545, -0.6%
  • German DAX: down 170 points at 10890, -1.5%
  • French CAC: down 89 points at 4718, -1.9%

The yields (interest rates) on Spanish and Italian government bonds have risen today, as investors view them as riskier. But it’s not a massive sell-off (the yield on Spanish 10-year debt has risen from 2.22% to 2.35% this morning)

Jens Nordvig of Japanese bank Nomura argues:

Those betting on run-away contagion as a result of Greece getting on an exit path will have to re-think….

The so-called domino theory is looking increasingly old-fashioned.

Meanwhile Rosie Scammell has helpfully done a translation of the comments from Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi on his Facebook page.

There are two areas…to confront quickly in European capitals and Brussels. The first regards Greece, a country that is in a very difficult economic and social situation. The meetings tomorrow must indicate a definitive road to resolve this emergency.

The second – even more fascinating and complex, but no longer postponable – is that of Europe. For months we have been insisting on discussing not only austerity and budgets, but growth, infrastructure, common policies on migration, innovation, the environment. In one word: politics, not only parameters. Values, not only numbers.

If we stay at a standstill, prisoners of rules and bureaucracy, Europe is finished.

Rebuilding a different Europe will not be easy, after what has happened in recent years. But this is the right moment to try and do it, all together. Italy will do its part.

The downbeat comments about the prospects of a new deal with Greece, notably from Germany and the European Commission’s Valdis Dombrovskis, have seen the euro lose nearly all the gains it made after news came in of Yanis Varoufakis’ resignation as Greek finance minister.

Euro midday
Euro loses early gains against the dollar. Photograph: Reuters/Reuters

And here’s AP’s summary of the earlier comments from Angela Merkel’s spokesman about the conditions not being there for new negotiations with Greece:

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman says Germany sees no basis at present for entering negotiations on a new bailout program for Greece, but that the door remains open.

Steffen Seibert said Monday that Germany respects the “clear ‘no’ vote” by Greeks against austerity measures demanded by creditors and that “the door for talks always remains open.”

However, he said the conditions are “not there at present to enter negotiations on a new program.” He said the “no” vote is a vote against the principle still supported by Germany that solidarity requires countries to take responsibility.

Seibert says Europe will explore what possibilities there are to help Greek citizens and “a lot will depend on what proposals the Greek government now puts on the table.”

Merkel arrives at the chancellery in Berlin this morning.
Merkel arrives at the chancellery in Berlin this morning. Photograph: Fabrizio Bensch/REUTERS

Greek debt reduction not on Germany’s agenda

Following the downbeat comments earlier from German government spokesman Steffen Seibert, the country’s finance ministry has now said a reduction in Greece’s debt mountain is not on Germany’s agenda. Associated Press reports:

Ministry spokesman Martin Jaeger said “our position is well-known … a debt cut is not an issue for us.”

He said there were no grounds for a debt restructuring given that Greece has yet to set out fresh proposals for financial aid.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund, which has been a major creditor of Greece over the past five years, suggested that debt relief for Greece is necessary.

Jaeger says Europe decided that economic reforms coupled with aid was a better route to a sustainable future for Greece, adding that it was working well in the country, until the end of last year.

Jaeger said he didn’t see much need to change this approach, noting the success of other bailed-out countries.

Italy’s Renzi says permanent solution must be found

Another sign we’re in the age of social media dominance: Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi has said Europe must find a permanent solution to the Greek crisis – via a Facebook post.

(Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis earlier announced his resignation by Twitter/blog)

Speaking of Russia, the country has said Greece and its creditors should reach a compromise as soon as possible. Bloomberg reports it is watching developments “closely” following the referendum:

“We treat with respect the voice raised during the plebiscite,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call on Monday. Russia would like Greece to take decisions that contribute to “social and economical stability in the country,” he said.

Greece has never asked Russia for financial aid in dealing with the debt crisis, Peskov said. Greek issues might be discussed on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in Ufa this week of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, though they are not on the official agenda, he said.

Full story here.

And this meeting of Greek party leaders may never end….

Helena Smith adds:

Reports now coming through that Tsipras has broken away from meeting with other party leaders to talk with German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Greek television channels have been breaking into scheduled programmes to announce that prime minister Alexis Tsipras will cut short the meeting currently taking place of political party leaders at the presidential palace to speak with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, reports Helena Smith. (We mentioned this possiblity earlier). Helena writes:

The two men will speak by phone. The cross party meeting of political leaders will then resume.

Interestingly, says, Helena, the Greek energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, who has close ties with Moscow and heads the militant wing of Tsipras’ Syriza party, has also rushed to the presidential palace.

Tsipras and Putin in June
Tsipras and Putin in June Photograph: TASS / Barcroft Media/TASS / Barcroft Media

Meanwhile in Thessaloniki, people are hoping the no vote will prompt a resolution, finally, to the financial crisis. Angelique Chrisafis reports:

Stefanos Dimos was standing at his Thessaloniki flower shop, which for 62 years has been arranging bouquets to mark the births, deaths and weddings of locals in Greece’s second city. He had been weathering the crisis for five years, but this morning, after Greece’s resounding no vote, he said he felt optimistic.

In five years of austerity, Dimos had seen his trade fall by 50% and had to lay off two staff. Since last week the capital controls and bank closures that are still in place have seen his trade drop 90%, despite the summer wedding season. “The economy has virtually stopped,” he said. But like many “No” voters, Dimos, 52, held the prime minisiter Alexis Tsipiras to his word that there would be a new negotiation and a better deal for Greece. “We’re optimistic that there will be an agreement that is good for Greece and good for Europe. The “No” vote was a good result because it sent a clear message that we can’t have any more austerity. I see people foraging in bins here every day for food, something that didn’t happen before the crisis.”

He added: “We’re hoping that the deal will be improved, that debt will be eased, allowing business activity to start up again. Things have ground to a halt.”

Another florist in the city centre said he was happy with last night’s strong “No” result, even though he himself had tentatively voted “Yes”. He said: “I voted yes because I wanted Greece to stay in Europe. But I’m still pleased today because — like everyone else — I don’t want more austerity. I’m happy with the outcome as it voiced our feeling that we can’t take it any more. Austerity has been a dead-end for growth and for our economy.”

Outside a nearby bank, a small queue of pensioners gathered early to access limited amounts to their pensions, and a small line of others waited to withdraw their daily €60. One lawyer who had voted yes said: “There’s an urgency in getting a new deal as fast as possible because banks are facing a real liquidity problem, they can’t last much longer. Any new deal now has to satisfy all the other eurozone members, it’s not going to be easy. In fact, it’s going to be very difficult here.”

Constantin Petropoulous, 88, and his wife Georgia, 80, were standing at the back of the queue, waiting to access a portion of their monthly pensions that had shrunk to €600. Like many in the city, they had spent decades as labourers in Germany, where Constantin had worked for Bosch in Stuttgart, returing to Thessaloniki to later work in a shop. “The real challenge for Greece this week is this feeling of the unknown, the uncertainty,” he said. “Whether the vote had been yes or no, things would have been difficult. We know it will be a very hard week. We just have to be patient.”

The European Central Bank’s governing council is due to discuss emergency funding to Greek banks in a telephone call later this afternoon, sources have told Reuters.

In Athens, cash machines are increasingly failing to dispense the full amount allowed under the current capital controls. John Hooper reports:

A tour of banks in the capital this morning showed that, while depositors are notionally allowed €60 a day under the capital controls, increasingly €50 is the norm. That could help explain why the government is reportedly confident that Greece’s ATMs can continue to dole out cash till Friday.

Of seven cash machines visited, only two were dispensing the full amount, ostensibly because the banks are running out of €20 notes. At Alpha Bank on Alexandras Avenue, Irene Abatzi said: “I don’t care if it’s fifty or sixty, just so long as the machine carries on giving out cash.”

A woman withdraws money from an ATM machine while others speak to an official of the bank in Athens.
A woman withdraws money from an ATM machine while others speak to an official of the bank in Athens. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

Elsewhere, customers were less phlegmatic. A man in the up-market quarter of Kolonaki exploded with rage when he found out that a payment had not been made to his account, and that he could not withdraw anything.

The banks were opening their doors to pensioners, but in at least two parts of the city the pensioners were being told that only those who failed to get their pensions last week could be served. The deputy finance minister, Nadia Valavani, highlighted the intensity of the cash squeeze in a statement on Sunday, telling safe deposit owners they could retrieve valuables – but only with a bank employee standing over them to ensure they did not take out cash as well.

In Spain Pablo Iglesias, leader of the anti-austerity party Podemos, welcomed the results of the Greek referendum but cautioned those who sought to draw parallels between Spain and Greece. Ashifa Kassam in Madrid reports:

“It’s a very clear message,” Iglesias told Spanish radio Cadena Ser. “The citizens of Greece have said that austerity isn’t the way to end the economic crisis.”

He called on Europe’s leaders to reach an agreement with Greece, pointing to the resignation of Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. “Now there is no excuse. The time has come for sensibility and to find a reasonable agreement.”

On Varoufakis’ resignation he said: “It hurt me a lot because I think he’s an excellent economist….but I think the act of resigning is honorable as it will help the push for the agreement that his country needs.”

With a general election due in Spain by the end of the year, Iglesias carefully chose his words, knowing that the situation in Greece could drive moderate voters away from his party. “We have a great friendship with Syriza, but luckily, Spain is not Greece. We’re an economy with much more weight in the eurozone, we’re a country with a stronger administration and with a better economic situation,” he said, taking aim at the many comparisons being drawn between Spain and Greece. “The circumstances are different and I think it makes no sense to draw these parallels.”

Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias. Photograph: Susana Vera/Reuters

The situation in Greece has been used by the governing People’s Party to justify the austerity measures imposed during the height of the economic crisis. “Fortunately Spain has a prime minister who said no to the bailout and instead undertook reforms,” PP vice-president Fernando Martínez-Maillo told broadcaster Radio Nacional de España on Monday. “Thanks to those reforms…we’re in a situation of economic growth and job creation.”

Spain’s finance minister, Luis de Guindos said on Monday that although the No vote made the situation more complex, everyone wants Greece to “stay in the euro.” His government is ready to talk about a third bailout, he added, but only if Greece was willing to play by the rules.

Eleni Varvitsiotis of Greek newspaper Kathimerini is not very upbeat about Dombrovskis:

More from Dombrovskis:

EC’s Dombrovskis says no vote complicates things

European Commissioner vice president Valdis Dombrovskis has said the no vote complicates the situation, but Greece’s place remains in the eurozone.

My colleague Jennifer Rankin notes:

Updated

Britain has called on Greece and its eurozone partners to sit down together and find a sustainable solution, Reuters reports.

Prime minister David Cameron’ spokeswoman said finding a solution was clearly in Britain’s best interests, and Britain supports a 28 member EU.

Meanwhile the ECB’s Ewald Nowotny, also president of the National Bank of Austria, said any new Greek deal needs time. To expect an agreement within two days – as Greece had suggested – is “illusionary.”

And regarding the emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks:

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has reportedly already been on the phone to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi – not surprising when the ECB has to decide its next move with regard to Greek banks.

Meanwhile Tsipras will apparently also speak to Russian president Putin on the phone before the end of the day.

And here’s a bit of a dampener on things, from Austria’s Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling:

But he did say he hopes talks would be easier now Varoufakis has gone.

Updated

What happens next?

So what happens next, for Greece’s bailout negotiations, the country’s banks, its future in the eurozone? Here is our updated assessment of where we stand:

And as a tribute to Yanis Varoufakis brief but colourful period as Greek finance minister, here is a piece of video from 1993. As an economics professor he was discussing government policies and, topically, austerity.

Varoufakis
Varoufakis in 1993 Photograph: Greek TV via Youtube

Spain’s economy minister Luis de Guindos has echoed that Greece should remain part of the eurozone and the euro is irreversible.

He said the Spanish government was open to negotiating a third bailout, and any new Greek package should include a comprehensive analysis of Greek needs.

(Quotes courtesy Reuters).

Luis de Guindos.
Luis de Guindos. Photograph: Andrea Comas/Reuters

Angela Merkel’s spokesman say conditions for Greek talks not in place

Conditions for talks with Greece are not in place, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert has said.

But Greece is part of the eurozone and the government must act to make sure this remains the case. Germany is now waiting for the new proposals from Greece:

Updated

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, has confirmed this morning’s conference call and its participants:

George Osborne to make Commons statement on Greece

UK chancellor George Osborne is set to make a statement about Greece in the Commons at around 3.30 today. Earlier Osborne met prime minister David Cameron and Bank of England governor Mark Carney to discuss the crisis:

Greek banks can keep allowing withdrawals until Friday, depending on what happens with the ECB, the BBC’s Robert Peston has reported:

Meanwhile, earlier:

The Eurogroup – which as we said earlier is to meet on Tuesday – has said it expects new proposals from Greece. In a statement it said:

The Eurogroup will discuss the situation following the referendum in Greece that was held on 5 July 2015. Ministers expect new proposals from the Greek authorities.

The referendum was held after the Greek government unilaterally withdrew from ongoing negotiations with the institutions (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) on Greece’s comprehensive reform plan, foreseen under the agreement of February 2015.

Greece likely to be on BRICS summit agenda

There has been no official reaction from the Kremlin yet about the Greek vote, writes Shaun Walker, but Russia has been watching the drama unfold between Athens and Brussels with some interest, and Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has made two visits to Moscow in recent months to make the point that Greece could seek alternative creditors. He has left with little in the way of concrete commitments, however.

A summit of the BRICS group of nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will be held in the Russian city of Ufa later this week and Greece is likely to be on the agenda. Various ideas have been floated in recent weeks, including making Greece a member of the club, which would give it access to loans from the newly founded BRICS development bank.

However, while Moscow might be keen on the idea for political reasons, Russia is also still in a difficult financial situation, and the other BRICS members may well be less keen.

The Eurogroup will be meeting tomorrow ahead of the eurozone leaders’ summit, its president Jeroen Dijsselbloem has just said:

As the European Central Bank decides about liquidity for Greek banks – ahead of the July 20 date for the country to repay €3.5bn on a bond held by the ECB – economist Dario Perkins at Lombard Street Research points to one possible outcome:

Updated

UK papers have reflected the uncertainty over the what comes next for the eurozone, as Roy Greenslade reports:

Crisis, chaos, turmoil. Today’s British national newspaper headlines reflect the seriousness of the situation facing the European Union and the eurozone after the referendum vote in Greece.

Several of the newspapers also convey the sense of bafflement at what happens next: “Europe faces crisis after gambling Greeks say No” (The Times); “Europe in turmoil as Greeks vote No” (Daily Telegraph); “Greek ‘no’ plunges Europe into crisis” (The Independent); “Greeks vote ‘no’ – Europe shudders (i); and “Greece’s eurozone future hangs in balance as No vote set to triumph” (Financial Times).

The Daily Mail and Daily Express engage in some prediction: “Meltdown: EU in crisis as Greece votes ‘no’ to crippling cuts and heads for eurozone exit” and “Greece ready to leave the Euro after day of chaos”.

Two prefer to state the bald fact: “Greek voters defy Europe” (The Guardian) and “Greeks vote no” (Metro). And the red-tops, being the red-tops, indulge in puns: “Greeky bum time” (The Sun); “Rhodes to ruin?” (Daily Mirror); and “It’s Greece frightenin’.” (Daily Star).

But there is nothing to smile about in the editorials, several of which refer to it, predictably, as a “Greek tragedy.” Newspapers opposed to the EU or, at the least, to the euro, barely conceal their delight at the possible unravelling of the eurozone.

Full story here:

Here’s Alexis Tsipras and his colleagues at their meeting this morning to discuss their next move after the no victory in the referendum:

Tsipras arrives for the meeting.
Tsipras arrives for the meeting. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images
Meeting begins.
Meeting begins. Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP

Earlier Tsipras met Greek president Prokopis Pavlopoulos:

Tsipras visits Pavlopoulos.
Tsipras visits Pavlopoulos. Photograph: Imago / Barcroft Media/imago/Wassilis Aswestopoulos

ECB member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer has been commenting on Greek finances:

This refers to Greek debt held by the ECB, which he says cannot be restructured because it would be monetary financing of a state.

According to the bookies, Greece will not leave the eurozone this year but Britain is likely to vote to leave the EU in a referendum:

European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker will hold a conference call with the Eurogroup and European Central Bank (among others) this morning.

In a statement the commission said it “takes note of and respects the result of the referendum in Greece,” and added:

President Juncker is consulting (…) with the democratically elected leaders of the other 18 Eurozone members as well as with the Heads of the EU institutions. He will have a conference call among the “Euro-Institutionals” (with the President of the Euro Summit, the President of the Euro Group and the President of the European Central Bank) on Monday morning. He intends to address the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday.

On Tuesday 7 July at 18h a special Euro Summit will take place to discuss the situation after the referendum in Greece.

Updated

Fabio Sdogati, professor of International Economics at Politecnico di Milano, the largest technical university in Italy, is clearly a Varoufakis fan:

More from Simon Goodley on IG’s trading floor:

Despite Greece being the world’s biggest financial story since, er, the last time Greece was the world’s biggest financial story, there is surprisingly little activity in the equity markets, where volumes are low. According to Alastair McCaig, market analyst at IG, this is because investors don’t like uncertainty and nobody knows what is going to happen next.

He said: “Ask politicians what is happening with Greece and they say ‘I don’t know’. Markets are the same. Greece has surprised at every opportunity. Last week they surprised by calling a referendum. This week they surprised by voting ‘no’. They have the propensity to surprise again”.

Added to that, there is also the wobbly Chinese stock market, which is causing further nervousness (and which here they suspect is a bigger markets story) plus the fact that we are currently inhabiting a month between May and September – a section of the year the City tends to like to take off.

European markets down, Greek bond yields higher

European markets remain in the red, but are not in freefall:

European markets
European markets Photograph: Reuters/Reuters

The bond markets are more volatile.

Greek 10 year bond yields are back above 17% at 17.3% while two year yields are up 13 percentage points at a hefty 48% (although Reuters is reporting no trading is going on.)

Meanwhile Spanish 10-year yields are up marginally at 2.3%, Italy’s are at 2.32% and Portugal at 3%.

Updated

So, is Grexit more or less likely now given the developments of the last few hours:

However:

Euclid Tsakalotos, the Oxford-educated chief spokesman of the economics ministry, has been tipped as the most likely replacement for Yanis Varoufakis, writes Jennifer Rankin.

“He is one of the most sensible/moderate figures in Syriza and his appointment, if confirmed, would increase the chances for a sensible negotiation and a positive outcome,” Demetrios Efstathiou of Standard Chartered bank said.

Euclid Tsakalotos (left) with Yanis Varoufakis.
Euclid Tsakalotos (left) with Yanis Varoufakis. Photograph: Alkis Konstantinidis/REUTERS

Back in the bond markets and UK 10-year gilt yields have hit their lowest level since mid-June, with investors seeing the UK as something of a haven.

The no vote raises the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone, but the basis for a dialogue between the two sides still exists, according to French finance minister Michel Sapin.

He also said discussions of possible debt relief were “not taboo” and said France had put this proposal on the table. MNI reports:

“The ‘no’ carries a considerable risk for Greece,” Sapin told Europe 1 radio. “In this risk for Greece is the risk of an exit from the euro. But there is nothing automatic.”

Sapin said that “there is on the table a basis for dialogue but it is up to Greece to show that it will take this dialogue seriously.” He said it was “up to the Greek government and Mr. Tsipras to make new proposals as quickly as possible.”

Sapin declined to comment on the possible reaction of the European Central Bank to the Greek vote, other than to say that “there is a level today of liquidity. This level of liquidity cannot be reduced.”

Michel Sapin.
Michel Sapin. Photograph: CHAMUSSY/SIPA/REX Shutterstock/CHAMUSSY/SIPA/REX Shutterstock

Greek bond yields are currently up 139 basis points at 16.24% but they have been higher this morning:

View from the trading room floor

“The Greek bloke’s resigned. He’s run rings round ‘em.”

That was how one IG trader was overheard explaining the news of the resignation of Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis following Sunday’s referendum, as he chatted on the phone in early trading this morning, writes Simon Goodley.

To say the City is surprised by the news coming out of Greece is an understatement. Like eurozone officials it had expected that last week’s trailer of capital controls would be enough to get the country to vote yes, and IG priced a yes vote as a 60% chance last week.

So what now? Chris Beauchamp, senior market analyst at IG, said: “[German stock market] the Dax has opened down but is surging back – much like it did last Monday and much like the euro is doing. It is coming back on Varoufakis’s resignation – possibly more hope than expectation, but if you take out the most irritating man in the room then you might get a more reasonable response from Germany and France”.

Updated

And here’s a (typical) reaction from London mayor Boris Johnson:

Some timings for German comments on the Greece situation, courtesy Reuters:

German chancellor Merkel arrives at the Chancellery in Berlin this morning
German chancellor Merkel arrives at the Chancellery in Berlin this morning Photograph: Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

Elsewhere German industrial orders fell by just 0.2% in May, better than an expected 0.4% decline, despite the current eurozone crisis.

Economist Dr. Andreas Rees at UniCredit said:

After two consecutive and strong rises, German new orders in the manufacturing sector declined a moderate 0.2% month on month. The latest decrease is neither driven by a fundamental deterioration nor by the events in Greece.

The direct macro impact is limited, as only 0.4% of all German exports are shipped to Greece. The same is true for other eurozone countries. The most likely scenario going forward is that German companies (and their peers in the eurozone) will resume momentum in the next few months.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is due to meet his finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, at 9.30am (8.30am BST) today to discuss the Greek referendum, writes Rosie Scammell. As the result came in last night, Padoan took to Twitter to share his views on the vote:

(Italy has always worked for a solid and more integrated Europe. It was true yesterday and it will still be true tomorrow.)

(Shared rules by European peoples serve to guarantee the same objectives: affluence through economic growth and employment )

(Reforms and investments are in all countries the key to regain sustainable growth)

The Greek government spokesman has just said Varoufakis’ replacement will be announced after the meeting of party political leaders. That would suggest the leftist-led government is attempting to find consensus over the issue, Helena Smith reports.

The spokesman said.

As finance minister Yanis Varoufakis placed a leading role in negotiations from the government’s first day. The prime minister feels the need to thank him for his ceaseless effort to promote the positions of the government and the interests of the Greek people under very difficult circumstances. After the meeting of political leaders, his replacement will be announced.

Updated

Tsipras to decide on Varoufakis replacement

Over in Athens our correspondent Helena Smith says prime minister Alexis Tsipras is now debating who to replace his finance minister with. She writes:

Talks are being held between deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis and Tsipras as I write with the sole purpose of deciding who should replace Yanis Varoufakis.

Dragasakis, a former Marxist who is also an economist, is himself one of the contenders. The low-profile politician has had broad oversight of Greece’s economic policy over the last five months – and had expressed growing displeasure with Varoufakis’ tactics. But the 67-year-old may well wish to remain behind the scenes where he has a particularly powerful role.

That leaves the economics professor Giorgos Stathakis, currently the economics minister and the Oxford-educated economist Euclid Tsakalotos, who has had a lead role coordinating negotiations.

George Chouliarakis, the Manchester University academic heading the Greek government’s negotiating team – whose moderate views and comportment has been particularly well received by creditors – is reportedly also being considered.

Banking shares are among the major fallers, given the prospect of contagion from the struggling Greek banking system.

Deutsche Bank is down 2.7%, Santander 2.6% and Italy’s Monte Dei Paschi is 3.5% lower. In the UK Barclays and HSBC have both fallen around 1.2%.

But generally the reaction so far has been fairly subdued – at least compared to the expected falls.

Of course, the surprise resignation of Yanis Varoufakis has probably helped limit the damage, since it could well make negotiations easier when leaders meet on Tuesday.

European markets open lower

After shares fell sharply in Asia after the no vote in the Greek referendum, European markets are following suit.

The FTSE 100 is currently down just over 1% or 70 points but this is less than the 130 originally expected. Early days yet, of course.

Germany’s Dax is down around 2%, Spain’s Ibex is off 2.2%, Italy’s FTSE MIB is 2.8% lower and France’s Cac has fallen 2%.

Other events to watch out for today:

  • The UK government and the Bank of England are to review continency plans
  • Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Francois Hollande are to meet tonight ahead of a leaders’ summit on Tuesday
  • Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is putting together his new negotiating team

More reaction, this time from Italy. Rosie Scammell writes:

Italy’s newspapers are today awash with Greek flags, with most leading on the impact the no vote will have on Europe. “Greece, a slap in Brussels’ face” reads the front page of left-leaning daily La Repubblica, while Italy’s leading daily, Corriere della Sera, writes “The Greek NO scares Europe”.

In covering the resignation of the Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, Italian media have honed in on his fashion choice. Varoufakis appeared at a press conference in a grey t-shirt on Sunday night, before today announcing his decision to quit. Italians themselves are still getting used to the casual clothing choices of their own prime minister, Matteo Renzi, who often makes public appearances in jeans.

Corriere Della Sera
Corriere Della Sera Photograph: Corriera Della Sera
La Repubblica
La Repubblica Photograph: La Republbica

Bond yields rise after referendum result

Yields on government bonds in Spain, Italy and Portugal are moving higher after the no vote, not surprising given the implications of Greece moving closer to a eurozone exit on these countries:

Updated

European Central Bank to meet on Greece

One of the key decisions of the day will be made by the European Central Bank when it looks at whether to continue providing liquidity to Greek banks. If not, they will struggle to reopen on Tuesday, as Greek politicians (notably the now departed Yanis Varoufakis) had promised. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said:

The ball now lies firmly in the ECB’s court as the prospect of Greek banks running out of money in the coming hours is likely to increase, with the prospect that the ECB will cut off Greek banks in the process causing a collapse of the Greek banking system, and in the process highlighting the significant structural flaws of the euro.

In a proper monetary union it would be inconceivable for the US to cut off Florida or for the UK government to cut off Scotland from their lender of last resort, but if the ECB ends ELA then that is precisely what will happen to Greece, either later today, or later this week.

Updated

The surprise resignation of Yanis Varoufakis comes ahead of a meeting tomorrow between eurozone leaders to discuss their next steps following the no victory in the referendum.

That could of course make things easier for Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras in any discussions with his peers. Varoufakis himself said as much: “I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my … ‘absence’ from its meetings.” Over the weekend he had accused Greece’s European creditors of “terrorism.”

And in keeping with his tenure as finance minister he ended with a jibe at his tormentors: “I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.”

His departure was not the first in the wake of the vote – yesterday Antonis Samaras, the head of the opposition rightwing New Democracy party who campaigned for the yes side, stepped down.

But the decision by the motorcycle-riding, game-playing Varoufakis has far more significance, as shown by the fact the euro recovered some of its lost ground in the wake of the announcement:

Euro July 5
Euro July 5 Photograph: Reuters/Reuters

Updated

Here’s an early call on how European markets are expected to open, courtesy IG:

Summary

I’m handing over our continuing coverage of events in Greece and across Europe to my colleague Nick Fletcher. Here’s a short summary of how events stand at the moment:

  • The Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned, despite a no vote in the referendum. In a blog post on his website Varoufakis flagged that his decision was prompted in part by “some European participants” expressing a desire for his role to end in any further negotiations.
  • Alexis Tsipras has called for a key political meeting to take place in Greece on Monday morning at 10:00am to discuss the outcome of the referendum.
  • Greeks voted overwhelmingly for a no vote in the referendum, with over 61% casting a no vote in the groundbreaking political decision.

Here’s our report on the dramatic referendum result:

European leaders were scrambling for a response on Monday after a resounding no from Greek voters in a momentous referendum on austerity which could send the country crashing out of the eurozone.

With Europe’s financial markets set to follow Asia’s overnight lead by going sharply into the red, German chancellor Angela Merkel was to meet with French leader François Hollande in Paris after Greece overwhelmingly rejected international creditors’ tough bailout terms.

The pair spoke by telephone late Sunday, declaring the referendum decision must “be respected” and calling for an emergency eurozone summit which European Union president Donald Tusk said would be held on Tuesday.

A flurry of other meetings will also be held Monday as European leaders sized up the implications of the vote, a victory for Greece’s radical prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who insisted it did not mean a “rupture” with Europe.

Here’s the full story:

Updated

Here’s the very immediate response from some of the financial markets.

A short time before the post announcing his resignation, Varoufakis posted a much more jubilant note about the referendum decision:

On the 25th of January, dignity was restored to the people of Greece.

In the five months that intervened since then, we became the first government that dared raise its voice, speaking on behalf of the people, saying no to the damaging irrationality of our extend-and-pretend ‘Bailout Program’.

We

    • spread the word that the Greek ‘bailouts’ were exercises whose purpose was intentionally to transfer private losses onto the shoulders of the weakest Greeks, before being transferred to other European taxpayers
    • articulated, for the first time in the Eurogroup, an economic argument to which there was no credible response
    • put forward moderate, technically feasible proposals that would remove the need for further ‘bailouts’
    • confined the troika to its Brussels’ lair
    • internationalised Greece’s humanitarian crisis and its roots in intentionally recessionary policies
    • spread hope beyond Greece’s borders that democracy can breathe within a monetary union hitherto dominated by fear.

Ending interminable, self-defeating, austerity and restructuring Greece’s public debt were our two targets. But these two were also our creditors’ targets. From the moment our election seemed likely, last December, the powers-that-be started a bank run and planned, eventually, to shut Greece’s banks down. Their purpose?

Updated

Here’s our latest report on Varoufakis’ resignation. More details to be added shortly:

The Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned in the wake of the country’s resounding no vote rejecting the eurozone’s austerity terms.

Writing on his blog on Monday morning he said that he would be standing down immediately after pressure from Greece’s European partners.

“Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my … ‘absence’ from its meetings,” he wrote.

The prime minister Alexis Tsipras judged this to be “potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the ministry of finance today”.

He added: “The referendum of 5 July will stay in history as a unique moment when a small European nation rose up against debt-bondage.

“Like all struggles for democratic rights, so too this historic rejection of the Eurogroup’s 25 June ultimatum comes with a large price tag attached. It is, therefore, essential that the great capital bestowed upon our government by the splendid NO vote be invested immediately into a YES to a proper resolution – to an agreement that involves debt restructuring, less austerity, redistribution in favour of the needy, and real reforms.

Updated

Varoufakis’ presence in further negotiations was always going to be difficult after his public rhetoric about the role of European leaders.

In one interview published on Saturday, he accused the country’s creditors of terrorism:

“What they’re doing with Greece has a name: terrorism,” Varoufakis told Spain’s El Mundo. “What Brussels and the troika want today is for the yes [vote] to win so they could humiliate the Greeks. Why did they force us to close the banks? To instil fear in people. And spreading fear is called terrorism.”

On Sunday night he promised to resign in the event a yes vote was recorded. Despite the outcome of a no vote, he has still followed through on that decision to resign.

Updated

"Minister no more": Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigns

In another extraordinary development the Greek finance minister has just announced his resignation.

In a move likely to spark further concerns about the role of other European leaders in Greece’s internal politics, Varoufakis said he was made aware of a preference by “some European participants” of his absence throughout the continuing negotiations.

The post was made on Varoufakis’ blog and there is nothing to suggest it is not authentic. It has also been cross-posted on his Twitter account.

Here’s the post in full:

The referendum of 5th July will stay in history as a unique moment when a small European nation rose up against debt-bondage.

Like all struggles for democratic rights, so too this historic rejection of the Eurogroup’s 25th June ultimatum comes with a large price tag attached. It is, therefore, essential that the great capital bestowed upon our government by the splendid NO vote be invested immediately into a YES to a proper resolution – to an agreement that involves debt restructuring, less austerity, redistribution in favour of the needy, and real reforms.

Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.

I consider it my duty to help Alexis Tsipras exploit, as he sees fit, the capital that the Greek people granted us through yesterday’s referendum.

And I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.

We of the Left know how to act collectively with no care for the privileges of office. I shall support fully Prime Minister Tsipras, the new Minister of Finance, and our government.

The superhuman effort to honour the brave people of Greece, and the famous OXI (NO) that they granted to democrats the world over, is just beginning.

Peter Kazimir, the Slovakian finance minister, has also made some rather colourful observations of the current situation overnight:

The UK government is also prepared to do whatever necessary to protect the country from the impact of a possible exit from the Eurozone for Greece. This from AFP is the latest update:

Britain will do “whatever is necessary to protect its economic security”, a government spokesman said Monday after Greeks voted overwhelmingly against austerity in a referendum that could send them crashing out of the eurozone with unknown consequences.

“This is a critical moment in the economic crisis in Greece,” a Downing Street spokesman said. “We will continue to do whatever is necessary to protect our economic security at this uncertain time. We have already got contingency plans in place and later this morning the Prime Minister will chair a further meeting to review those plans in light of yesterday’s result.”

The front pages of newspapers across Europe are a combination of fear, hope and (on occasion) somewhat comical absurdity.

Here’s a short sample of a few of them, starting off with a rather extraordinary one from Efsyn featuring Dutch politician Jeroen Dijsselbloem:

Here’s the Guardian’s view on the current impasse now facing Europe following the Greek referendum:

Kicking the can down the road has been the cliche of choice over a slow euro crisis that has steadily strangled the life out of the Greek economy. But at some point Europe was bound to run out of road. That happened on Sunday night, when it emerged that the Greek people had said no to continuing to engage with their creditors on the same suffocating terms.

Just over a week ago, Alexis Tsipras staked his future on forcing this denouement. The eight days that followed his midnight declaration of a plebiscite, to accept or reject the creditors’ terms for the latest slug of overdraft, have witnessed many extraordinary things. The Greek parliament licensed a hasty referendum on a question that had already been overtaken by events. A ballot paper written in jargon posed a ludicrously technical question, opening up a void for emotion to fill. Mixing talk of “terror” from their partners with haze about what would happen after a no, Mr Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, aimed squarely for the heart rather than the head. Meanwhile, Greeks faced the fiercest financial controls ever seen in modern Europe: bank doors were shut, supplies disrupted, and citizens queued at every cashpoint for their ration of notes. In countries such as Germany, where history engenders suspicion of referendums, it may have looked like a paradigm case of how not to do democracy.

As the sun begins to rise now in Greece on “the morning after” Syntagma Square appears empty. That may well change as another highly politically charged day is set to get underway across Europe

John Cassidy in the New Yorker has outlined some useful analysis on the implications of the no vote:

Whether they will be offered one within the eurozone remains to be seen. Although the result was a great political triumph for Tsipras and Syriza, it doesn’t automatically translate into a victory in the showdown with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Greece is still broke, and its banks are still closed. If the Europeans want to force the Greeks out of their currency club, they have the means to do it at any moment. All they have to do is turn off the credit that the European Central Bank has been providing to Greece’s banks. Indeed, the ECB’s governing council will decide on Monday what to do next.

With Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and François Hollande, the French president, due to meet in Paris on Monday afternoon, and an emergency summit of all European Union leaders scheduled for Tuesday, it seems highly unlikely that the ECB. will render these deliberations pointless by immediately torpedoing the Greek financial system. In all likelihood, there will be at least one more round of talks between the two sides, and, quite possibly, more than one. Greece’s next big payment to its creditors isn’t due until 23 July, which is more than two weeks away. If the country’s banks can somehow be propped up until then, there is time for more deliberation.

Updated

We’ve written a lot about the market reaction to events in Europe, but the political fallout in Greece is still likely to unfold rapidly over the next few days.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is convening a meeting of key political leaders at 10am on Monday in Athens, according to Enikos. Overnight the Greek opposition leader Antonis Samaras resigned following the referendum decision.

How Tsipras proceeds throughout this week will continue to shape how events unfold across Europe.

China’s response to the Greek referendum and the market uncertainty has been to engage in a series of complex manoeuvres aimed at stimulating the market.

It’s not yet clear how successful the measures – which involve a variety of investments and buyouts aided by the central bank – will be in preventing setbacks for their markets.

Reuters have a good take on the different measures that have been employed here:

Chinese stocks jumped on Monday after Beijing unleashed an unprecedented series of support measures over the weekend to stave off the prospect of a full-blown crash that was threatening to destabilize the world’s second-biggest economy.

In an extraordinary weekend of policy moves, brokerages and fund managers vowed to buy massive amounts of stocks, helped by China’s state-backed margin finance company, which in turn would be aided by a direct line of liquidity from the central bank.

Investors, who had ignored official measures to prop up the market as equity indexes slid around 12% last week, finally reacted, with the CSI300 index .CSI300 of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen jumping 4%, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC gained 3 percent. [.SS]

Blue chips, the explicit target of the stabilization fund, outperformed stocks on the small-cap ChiNext indexes.

The rapid decline of China’s previously booming stock market, which by the end of last week had fallen around 30 percent from a mid-June peak, had become a major headache for President Xi Jinping and China’s top leaders, who were already struggling to avert a sharper economic slowdown.

In response, China has orchestrated a halt to new share issues, with dozens of firms scrapping their IPO plans in separate but similarly worded statements over the weekend, in a tactic authorities have used before to support markets.

Updated

My colleague Justin McCurry has filed a more comprehensive take on the Asian market reaction to the Greek referendum, which largely recorded falls across the board but with limited losses.

China is the exception – it saw a boost on open this morning – but that is attributed to the enormous and unprecedented government measures implemented over the weekend to try and stop a market crash.

This from Justin:

Analysts said that regional market panic was unlikely, even after Athens appeared to take a step closer to a “Grexit” by roundly rejecting the bailout terms set by its international creditors But they added that negotiations this week would be critical.

“The Greece ‘no’ vote is a surprise,” Shoji Hirakawa, chief equity strategist at Okasan Securities, told Bloomberg News. “But the key is that the direction is going toward more talks after this.”

Other analysts said markets had not expected Greek voters to reject the terms of the bailout so emphatically – a move that could see further losses on Monday and trigger an investor rush to US Treasuries or other government bonds that are seen as largely immune to market turbulence.

In one of the day’s more colourful commentaries, analysts at Japan’s Mizuho Bank said the Sunday’s “Greferendum” had turned out to be a “Grief-erendum”.

On what most had expected to be a tricky day for markets around the world, dealers stressed that uncertainty over Greece’s future had not rocked markets as badly as some might have expected.

Read his report in full here.

Updated

“The fightback for a Europe of dignity starts here.”

Another short documentary from John Domokos and Phoebe Greenwood.

As Syriza supporters flock to Athens’ Syntagma square to celebrate, Phoebe Greenwood talks to those who are celebrating a historic referendum outcome. ‘They thought they could intimidate us,’ one man says. Despite jitters on the financial markets, others happy with the historic oxi (no) vote say they hope it will be the moment that Greeks can come together.

Crisis will be "appropriately resolved" China minister says

Deputy Chinese foreign minister Cheng Guoping believes the Greek crisis will be “appropriately resolved” and the economy will turn around, Reuters reports.

However he would not say if Alexis Tsipras could attend an emerging powers summit later in the week in Russia.

“I believe that with the hard efforts of all sides, Greece’s economic situation will turn around. The economic crisis will be appropriately handled,” he told reporters, in China’s first official comment since the Greek vote.

“Whether or not it can be appropriately handled will not only have an important impact on Greece and its people, but will have an important impact on … the world too.”

Asked whether Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras might come to this week’s summit of the BRICS group of five major emerging nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – Cheng said that as Russia was the host it was its decision on whether to invite other countries.

Russia’s finance minister said last week that Russia had not offered Greece the chance to become a member of the New Development Bank that is being created by the BRICS group.

Updated

Result is very regrettable – Eurogroup president

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, has released a statement on the referendum results.

It is a short statement, but needless to say, Dijsselbloem is disappointed.

I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece. For recovery of the Greek economy, difficult measures and reforms are inevitable. We will now wait for the initiatives of the Greek authorities. The Eurogroup will discuss the state of play on Tuesday 7 July.

Argentinian president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is never shy of enthusiastically tweeting her opinions, has welcomed the referendum results.

In a series of tweets written in English, Fernández labeled the No vote an “outright victory of democracy and dignity.”

The Greek people have said NO to the impossible and humiliating conditions imposed upon them for the restructuring of their foreign debt. We Argentines understand what this is about. We hope Europe and its leaders understand the message of the polls. Nobody can be asked to sign their own death certificate. The words of President Kirchner still resound at the UN General Assembly in 2003 he said: “The dead do not pay their debts.”

Some background on the link between Argentina and Greece in this current crisis, from Reuters:

There are stark similarities between Argentina’s 2002 financial meltdown and the turmoil in Greece: rigid monetary regimes, creditors battling domestic politics to fix the problem and banking systems at breaking point.

The South American grains behemoth defaulted on $100 billion in bonds in a 2002 crisis that thrust millions of middle-class Argentines into poverty. By the next year, helped by a massive soy crop, Argentina started growing again.

But the 2002 crisis continues to plague its finances.

Fernandez regularly blasts bondholders who have sued the country over the debt it failed to pay 13 years ago.

Most holders agreed to restructurings that paid about 30 cents on the dollar, while a group of hedge funds sued for full repayment.

The country defaulted again last year when a U.S. judge barred it from honouring its restructured debt without reaching a deal with the funds, which Fernandez denounces as “vultures.”

Argentina became one of the world’s fastest expanding economies after its default, growing at an averaging above 8.5 percent between 2003 and 2007, when Fernandez was first elected.

Since then she has ordered trade and currency controls that have slowed investment while government fiscal accounts deteriorate due to high state spending.

Updated

Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, has claimed the successful No campaign is a “majestic, big YES to a democratic, rational Europe.”

Varoufakis accuses Greece’s creditors of attempting to “humiliate” the leftwing government by forcing stringent austerity, and dragging them into an agreement which “offers no firm commitment to a sensible, well-defined debt restructure.”

He further writes:

Today’s referendum delivered a resounding call for a mutually beneficial agreement between Greece and our European partners. We shall respond to the Greek voters’ call with a positive approach to:

  • The IMF, which only recently released a helpful report confirming that Greek public debt was unsustainable
  • The ECB, the Governing Council of which, over the past week, refused to countenance some of the more aggressive voices within
  • The European Commission, whose leadership kept throwing bridges over the chasm separating Greece from some of our partners.

Updated

‘We’re going to hit the iceberg’

A great short film here from John Domokos.

From the Syriza faithful to the run-down docks of Piraeus and the middle-class district of Faliro, Greeks spent the day of the referendum locked in debate, suspense and catharsis.

For some it was a day they sent a message to Europe that they will ‘not be intimidated’. But many Greeks fear trouble lies ahead. As one voter said, both a yes and no outcome would result in calamity: ‘We’re three metres from the iceberg and we’re here to be asked if we’re going to go right or left.’ Either way, he said, ‘we’re going to hit the iceberg’.

Updated

Shanghai stocks have jumped almost 8%. The government boosts AFP refers to are emergency measures taken to prevent a possible stock market crash in the world’s second-largest economy. It’s not directly related to Greece, but could still have an effect on world markets.

From Reuters: In an extraordinary weekend of policy moves, brokerages and fund managers vowed to buy massive amounts of stocks, helped by China’s state-backed margin finance company which in turn would be aided by a direct line of liquidity from the central bank.

China has also orchestrated a halt to new share issues, with dozens of firms scrapping their IPO plans in separate but similarly worded statements over the weekend, in a tactic authorities have used before to support markets.

Europe dodged a bullet with the No result, and its supporters should be breathing a sigh of relief, Paul Krugman writes for the New York Times.

Krugman’s colourful take on the events of the last day is well worth a read, but here is a snippet. He continues:

Of course, that’s not the way the creditors would have you see it. Their story, echoed by many in the business press, is that the failure of their attempt to bully Greece into acquiescence was a triumph of irrationality and irresponsibility over sound technocratic advice.

But the campaign of bullying — the attempt to terrify Greeks by cutting off bank financing and threatening general chaos, all with the almost open goal of pushing the current leftist government out of office — was a shameful moment in a Europe that claims to believe in democratic principles. It would have set a terrible precedent if that campaign had succeeded, even if the creditors were making sense.

What’s more, they weren’t. The truth is that Europe’s self-styled technocrats are like medieval doctors who insisted on bleeding their patients — and when their treatment made the patients sicker, demanded even more bleeding.

Ouch.

Updated

As we continue our watch of the Asian/Pacific markets, the Malaysian ringgit has been given the unenviable title of “worst currency” this morning, according to the FT.

Japan’s Nikkei stock index has mounted a slight recovery after dropping 1.5% in early trading Monday, as Asian markets were jolted by the uncertainty created by Greece’s “no” vote in Sunday’s austerity referendum.

The Nikkei 225 was trading down 1.4% at 20256.69, having earlier fallen 339.64 points to 20,200.15, a day after Greece voted to rejected the eurozone’s terms for the country remaining in the single currency.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.9% at 2,085.67.

Nils Pratley, the Guardian’s financial editor, says the current crisis has pushed the financial world back to the wild markets of the 2008 financial crisis.

You can read Nils’ analysis in full here, but below is a snippet on bond markets, which he says will take centre stage.

That is where Grexit worries will be keenest. If Greece could be on the way out of the single currency, will investors be less willing to hold the debt of other eurozone states carrying heavy debt loads? The sovereign debt of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland will be closely watched for knock-on effects. Will there be contagion?

All eyes will turn to the European Central Bank. First, to see if it cuts off support for Greek banks. Second, to learn if it is prepared to intervene to protect the bonds of other eurozone stragglers. Last Sunday, when Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called the referendum, the ECB and the eurogroup ministers pledged to react, if needed, to avoid a dangerous fall-out in debt markets.

Pratley also makes an interesting point that while the euro will “almost certainly fall in value initially” there is another school of though which says “the single currency would be strengthened in the long run by the departure of its weakest member.”

The Australian stock exchange fell sharply on Monday’s open, not long after the final vote was counted (not that 100% was needed to see the overwhelming response). Below is a graph from the ASX website.

The Australian stock market fell sharply on open on Monday 6 July, following Greece's rejection of bailout terms by creditors.
The Australian stock market fell sharply on open on Monday 6 July, following Greece’s rejection of bailout terms by creditors. Photograph: ASX

The Australian dollar dipped to a six-year low of US$0.7484 in early trading but has recovered to 0.7509.

The euro, not surprisingly, was down 0.8% at $1.1015 but off an early low of $1.0967. It had initially dropped around 1.5% against the yen – which is seen as a safe haven.

The US dollar also recouped its early drop to be only a touch softer at 122.48 yen.

Updated

In a delightfully headlined post, the Financial Times says early moves don’t suggest a panic in the Asian markets. It also notes:

“The hope for Alexis Tsipras, prime minister, is that the vote galvanises support for his anti-austerity agenda and forces Athens’ creditors to make concessions.

But it’s questionable whether banks will re-open on Tuesday (after a holiday today), as planned. If they don’t, the “no” vote could fast-track a Grexit and see Greece revive its only currency.”

Read more from ‘Fast Asia Open: Oxi oxi oxi, oi oi oi’ here.

Summary

While we await further market news, let’s have a look back at the extraordinary last few hours. My colleague Graeme Wearden, and before him Julia Kollewe, drove live coverage of the vote count and reaction in the streets of Greece and around the world.

You can relive the night blow by blow here, or Graeme’s summary is below.

Greece has delivered a resounding No to its creditors, in a move that has stunned the eurozone tonight and may shake the financial markets.

In the last few minutes, the last ballot papers were counted. And No campaign has exceeded all expectations by securing 61.31% of the vote [here’s the official count].

As our interactive shows, every area of Greece has voted to reject the proposals of Greece’s creditors and seek a better deal.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has declared that it’s a historic day for Greece, which shows that democracy cannot be blackmailed.

In a TV address, Tsipras has also vowed to begin negotiations with creditors to reach a sustainable deal to tackle Greece’s debt crisis.

“You made a very brave choice.

“The mandate you gave me is not the mandate of a rupture with Europe, but a mandate to strengthen our negotiating position to seek a viable solution.”

“No” supporte”No” supporters wave Greek national flags during celebrations in Athens, Greece<br />“No” supporters wave Greek national flags during celebrations in Athens, Greece July 5, 2015. Greeks overwhelmingly rejected conditions of a rescue package from creditors on Sunday, throwing the future of the country’s euro zone membership into further doubt and deepening a standoff with lenders. REUTERS/Dimitris Michalakis” width=”1000″ height=”600″ class=”gu-image” /><br />
<figcaption> <span class=“No” supporte”No” supporters wave Greek national flags during celebrations in Athens, Greece
“No” supporters wave Greek national flags during celebrations in Athens, Greece July 5, 2015. Greeks overwhelmingly rejected conditions of a rescue package from creditors on Sunday, throwing the future of the country’s euro zone membership into further doubt and deepening a standoff with lenders. REUTERS/Dimitris Michalakis Photograph: STRINGER/Reuters

Greece’s future in the eurozone looks more perilous than ever, and the next 48 hours could be critical.

German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande will meet in Paris on Monday night.

Then on Tuesday, eurozone leaders will debate the crisis at an emergency summit. Eurozone finance ministers will hold a Eurogroup meeting that afternoon.

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijssebloem has already criticised the result of the referendum, warning:

“I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece.”

But democratic senator Bernie Sanders has hailed the result as a decisive vote against austerity.

A series of financial analysts have warned tonight that Greece is likely to exit the eurozone. As Barclays warned:

“While Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande are scheduled to meet tomorrow, we argue that EMU exit now is the most likely scenario….”

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, though, has denied this is an option:

Updated

Japan, S Korea, Australia markets open down

  • Japan Nikkei index down 1.46% to 20239.0
  • Australia’s ASX 200 is down 1.57% to 5451.4
  • South Korea’s Kospi index is down 1.23% at 2078.47

Futures trading

  • UK FTSE 6431.4 (-1.84%)
  • US S&P 500 2044.15 (-1.11%)
  • German DAX 10808.5 (-2.78%)

The Guardian’s Tokyo correspondent, Justin McCurry, has just filed the below update on Japan’s market today.

Japan’s Nikkei stock index opened down more than 300 points on Monday, a day after Greece voted to rejected the eurozone’s terms for the country remaining in the single currency.

The Nikkei mounted a recovery last week after after posting its second-biggest daily drop this year after Greece and its international creditors failed to make a breakthrough in bailout talks.

Japan’s finance minister, Taro Aso, said last week he did not expect dramatic falls in Japanese share prices or a sudden surge in the yen if Greece defaulted but stayed in the eurozone.

He warned, however, that the impact on Japanese and other markets could be big if Athens left the single currency.

Mohamed El-Erian, the former boss of the world’s biggest bond trader Pimco and now chief economic adviser at insurance giant Allianz, said investors should brace for a major global equity selloff.

“Yes, you will see one. With the extent and duration a function of whether the ECB steps in with new anti-contagion measures,” he writes for Bloomberg.

“Without huge emergency assistance from the European Central Bank – a decision that faces long odds – the government will find it hard to get money to the country’s automated teller machines, let alone re-open the banks.”

Over to you Mario Draghi.

Updated

All votes counted – Greece votes no

All referendum votes have now been counted, with a final result of 61.31% voting no, to 38.69% yes.

Eyes are now moving towards the world markets, particularly those in Asia set to open in the next few hours. Tokyo and Korea will be first in the next few minutes and along with Shanghai and Hong Kong later today, are ones to watch.

Unsurprisingly the euro fell sharply in Asia, Reuters has already reported.

The Japanese government said it was ready to respond as needed in markets and was in close touch with other nations.

The euro was down 0.9 percent at $1.1012 but off an early low of $1.0967. It had initially dropped around 1.5 percent on the safe-haven yen only to find a big buy order waiting, which pared its losses to 134.53.

Likewise, the dollar recouped its early drop to be only a touch softer at 122.34 yen. The dollar index added 0.3 percent to 96.434.

Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has addressed the Greek nation, telling voters they made a “brave choice” and that “democracy can not be blackmailed.”

However he added: “I am fully aware that the mandate here is not one to break with Europe by a mandate to strengthen our negotiating position to seek a viable solution.”

Greek voters have overwhelmingly rejected the extra austerity measures demanded by creditors in return for bailout funds. In a referendum held with just eight days notice, more than 60% have voted no, or oxi.

No supporters have taken to the streets in celebration, while Antonis Samaras, the head of the New Democracy party who campaigned for a Yes vote, has resigned.

Shocked EU finance ministers have called an emergency meeting for Tuesday, as analysts fear collapse of the Greek banking system.

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With its linked trade and innovation deficits, the UK seems as unprepared for a currency war as it was for real war in 1939. Countries are trying to export deflation somewhere else, using currency manipulation to do so…

 


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “UK looks ill-prepared if a global currency war breaks out” was written by Larry Elliott economics editor, for The Guardian on Sunday 17th November 2013 19.41 UTC

Rumours of war are in the air. Currency war, that is. The US treasury has forged an alliance with Brussels to attack Germany’s beggar-thy-neighbour approach to the rest of the eurozone. Last week the Czech government said it would defend its economy by driving down the value of  the koruna, following the aggressively interventionist example of  Japan and Switzerland.

It’s not hard to see why the atmosphere is becoming less cordial. This is a low growth world marked by over-capacity. Wages are under downward pressure and this is leading to ever-stronger deflationary pressure. A lack of international policy co-operation means that countries are trying to export deflation somewhere else, using currency manipulation to do so.

If a full-scale currency war does break out Britain looks as ill-prepared as it was for a military fight in 1939. We like to think of ourselves as a nation of buccaneering traders but only 16% of small and medium enterprises, with a turnover of over £20m, are actually exporting. We like to think of ourselves as the nation of innovators, yet as Richard Jones, of Sheffield University, notes, the UK is a less research and development intensive country than it was 30 years ago, and it lags well behind most of its rivals. The UK has linked trade and innovation deficits.

Jones, in a paper for the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute, examines in detail how during the past 30 years the UK’s corporate laboratories have vanished and how big R&D spenders such as ICI and GEC switched from being companies that thought about long-term investment to ones where the prevailing doctrine was to return the money spent on R&D to shareholders.

Those in charge of UK manufacturing companies became more interested in the next bid, the next deal and the next set of quarterly results than in developing new product ranges.

The consequences of decades of neglect of the country’s productive base and an over-reliance on North Sea oil and financial services are now glaringly apparent. In the past, recessions have ended with the current account broadly in balance. This recovery starts with a current account deficit of more than 3%  of national output.

This is despite a fall of 20% in the value of the pound between 2007 and 2013, which in theory should have boosted exports. In reality, exports grew by 0.4% a year between early 2009 and the start of 2013, compared with 1% a year in the previous decade.

Ministers have a pat answer when quizzed about the poor performance of exports. It is, they say, the result of geography. More than 40% of UK exports go to the eurozone, where growth is weak and demand for imports has collapsed. So the impact of sterling’s depreciation has been blunted.

This view is not shared by the Bank of England. While admitting that the global recovery is patchy, the bank noted in its February inflation report that “the relative weakness of UK exports does not reflect particular weakness in its major trading partners”. It concluded that some other explanation was needed “to explain the disappointing performance of UK exports”, and found it in a sharp drop in exports of financial services and the tendency of UK firms to use a cheaper pound to boost profits rather than increase market share. The decline in exports from the City since the crash highlights the risks for Britain of the “eggs in one basket” approach.

As Ken Coutts and Bob Rowthorn note in a paper on the prospects for the balance of payments, the UK has gone from being a country that had a 10% of GDP surplus in trade in manufactures in 1950 to running a 4% of GDP deficit by 2011. North Sea oil and gas were in decline, so energy added to the deficit by 1.3% of GDP. Food and government transfers to overseas bodies such as the EU, World Bank and UN were the other big debits.

On the other side of the ledger there were three sources of surpluses: financial services and insurance (3.1% of GDP); other knowledge-intensive services, which include law, consultancy and IT (2.5% of GDP); and investment income (1.1% of GDP). Once all the debits and credits were totted up Britain had a current account deficit of 1.9% of national income. This rose to 4% of GDP in 2012.

The recession has taken a heavy toll on two of the surplus sectors. Investment income has turned negative, and global demand for financial services has fallen. This has affected the UK more than the other big global providers of financial services, the US and EU.

According to the Bank of England, “This could reflect lower demand for UK financial services in general, or a particularly sharp fall in demand for those financial products in which the UK specialised prior to the crisis.” This is a polite way of saying that no one any longer wants what Lord Turner once dubbed the City’s “socially useless” products.

Coutts and Rowthorn model what happens to the current account using assumptions for growth in the UK domestic economy and world trade, the level of UK competitiveness, oil prices, North Sea oil and gas production, and returns on financial assets.

The baseline projection is that the current account is 3% of GDP in 2022. Using a slightly more pessimistic assumption, the deficit swells to 5% of GDP. As the authors note: “A deficit of this magnitude would be a cause for serious alarm.”

It certainly would be. The outgoing trade and investment minister, Lord Green, told a conference in the City to mark export week that there was no guarantee the rest of the world would be prepared to finance deficits of this size for ever. The government has a target for raising exports to £1tn a year by 2020 – which will require them to grow by 9% a year. (The average since 2012 has been 5%.)

We have heard the “export or die” message many times in the past, to little effect it has to be said. It is not impossible to improve Britain’s export performance, though doing so with the current economic model is a pipe dream. It will require nurturing manufacturing, knowledge-based services and those bits of the financial services sector for which there is long-term demand.

Britain, Jones says, “needs to build a new developmental state, a state that once again takes responsibility for large-scale technological innovation as the basis for sustainable growth and prosperity”. Amen to that. If a currency war is brewing, we need the can-do spirit of 1940, not the head-in-the-sands approach of 1938.

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Minutes of latest monetary policy committee meeting signal interest rates could rise sooner than 2016. Bank of England policymakers have been surprised at how rapidly growth has picked up and unemployment has fallen since the spring…

 


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Growing evidence of ‘robust recovery’ in UK economy, says Bank of England” was written by Heather Stewart, for theguardian.com on Wednesday 23rd October 2013 10.34 UTC

Bank of England policymakers have been surprised at how rapidly growth has picked up and unemployment has fallen since the spring, raising the prospect of an earlier-than-expected rise in interest rates.

The Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee voted unanimously to leave policy unchanged earlier this month; but minutes of their meeting showed that a strong increase in employment, and upbeat readings from business surveys, had prompted them to upgrade their expectations for growth.

Discussing the upbeat jobs data released this month, the minutes said: “It now therefore seemed probable that unemployment would be lower, and output growth faster, in the second half of 2013 than expected at the time of the August Inflation Report.”

They described the latest news as pointing to a “robust recovery in activity” in the UK – though they also warn about the lack of the kind of rebalancing in the economy, towards trade and away from consumer spending, that the coalition was hoping for. “There is a risk that the recovery in the United Kingdom might be less well balanced between exports and domestic consumption than was ultimately needed.”

One of the Bank’s first decisions after its governor, Mark Carney, joined in July was to issue “forward guidance”, promising to keep interest rates unchanged until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, barring a surge in inflation.

When the policy was unveiled in August, Carney said he expected unemployment to remain above 7% at least until 2016; but a slew of data, including a fall in the unemployment rate to 7.7% in the three months to July, had raised doubts in markets about whether the Bank would wait so long before deciding to act. Wednesday’s minutes suggest the MPC may be coming round to the idea that the 7% threshold could be reached sooner, though the committee stressed that “it was too early to draw a strong inference about future prospects from the latest data”.

Simon Wells, UK economist at HSBC, said: “We expect the MPC to bring forward the timing of unemployment hitting the 7% threshold by around two quarters when it revises its forecasts in November.”

Discussions among MPC members also highlighted the growing strength of Britain’s housing market, which they expect to boost the economy. “Overall, indicators pointed to continued house price rises. This would increase the collateral available to both households and small businesses, which could provide some further support to activity,” the minutes say.

In the latest indication of a revival in the property market, the British Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the number of mortgages approved by UK banks to fund house purchases reached 42,990 in September, its highest level in almost four years and well above the previous six-month average of 42,990.

The BBA data, which covers the run-up to the launch of Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, shows that activity in the housing market continued to gain momentum over the summer, with house purchase loans showing the biggest increase month-on-month.

The BBA said its members approved new loans worth a total of £10.5bn in September, up from £9.9bn in August and above the six-month average of £9bn. Of this, £6.7bn was for house purchases and £3.5bn for remortgages. The remainder was other secured borrowing.

The BBA statistics director, David Dooks, said: “September’s figures build on the growing picture of improved consumer confidence, with stronger gross mortgage lending, rising house purchase approvals and increased consumer credit.”

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Data for April shows contraction in Germany’s business activity, with prospects for service sector ‘increasingly gloomy’. The services purchasing managers index fell to 49.6 last month from 50.9 in March– the first contraction since November…

 


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Eurozone recession set to deepen as private sector shrinks for 15th month” was written by Rupert Neate, for The Guardian on Monday 6th May 2013 13.53 UTC

The eurozone's private sector shrank for the 15th consecutive month in April – suggesting the single currency area will fall deeper into recession.

Germany, the powerhouse of the eurozone, also suffered a contraction in business activity during the month, which could send a worrying signal for the rest of the bloc.

An official indication of eurozone GDP is due next week and on Monday the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, stressed that the policymakers would be ready to cut rates again after taking a quarter of a percentage point off the benchmark rate to a record low of 0.5% last week.

"We stand ready to act again," Draghi said in remarks that knocked the euro lower. Wall Street, meanwhile, remained close to last week's record highs.

Tim Moore, a senior economist at Markit, said prospects for Germany's service sector were increasingly gloomy. "A renewed slide in services output during April, alongside falling manufacturing production, raises the risk that the German economy will fail to expand over the second quarter," he said.

Data gauging the level of activity across thousands of companies and regarded as a good indicator of general economic conditions came in below the crucial level of 50, which separates contraction from expansion. At 46.9 in April, Markit's eurozone composite purchasing manager's index (PMI) was an improvement on initial readings of 46.5 and March's output of 46.5 but it has been below 50 for more than a year.

Germany's PMI, which measures growth in manufacturing and services and accounts for more than two-third's of Germany's GDP, fell to 49.2.

Germany's economy performed well during the first two years of the eurozone crisis, but growth slowed last year as it was knocked by the slowdown in China. The services sector fell to 49.6 last month from 50.9 in March – the first contraction since November. Germany's wobble is likely to drag the whole of the eurozone deeper into recession, Markit warned. "The eurozone's economic downturn is likely to have gathered momentum again in the second quarter," Chris Williamson, its chief economist, said. "The PMI is broadly consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 0.4%-0.5% in April."

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The latest data and survey evidence fuel concern that the eurozone is headed for further GDP contraction in the second quarter after highly likely suffering a sixth successive quarter of contraction in the first quarter of 2013."

The European commission last week warned that it expects the eurozone's GDP to shrink by 0.4% in 2013, an increase on the 0.3% it had previously forecast. The recovery pencilled in for 2014 will also be slower than expected and the unemployment crisis in the eurozone will persist, the commission said in its spring forecasts.

ECB executive board member Benoît Cœuré had also indicated that the central bank would be ready to cut interest rates further if the economic outlook in the euro area worsens. "It's a historic low and we'll cut again if indicators confirm the situation is deteriorating," Cœuré said in an interview with France Inter radio station on Monday.

Williamson said it was difficult to believe that a mere 25 basis point cut from an already low level will have "a material impact on an economy that is contracting so sharply".

In further gloomy news, a separate EU report published on Monday showed retail sales across the eurozone dropped 0.1% in March following a 0.2% fall in February.

There were also fears that the service sector is slashing prices to drum up business. Official figures released last week showed prices across the region rose 1.2% in April – well below the central bank's 2% target – while unemployment hit a new high of 12.1%.

An index that measures sentiment in the eurozone improved, but illustrated concerns about Germany. "While investors' assessments of the economy for the eurozone are stabilising, those for Germany are clouding a little, albeit at a significantly higher level," research group Sentix said.

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It is time for the European Central Bank to show its independence and act in the interests of all eurozone citizens– not just Angela Merkel’s, writes The Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott.  A different approach is needed to save the eurozone…

 


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “European Central Bank must heed eurozone warning signs” was written by Larry Elliott, economics editor, for The Guardian on Tuesday 30th April 2013 12.57 UTC

The warning signs are flashing red for the eurozone. Inflation is plunging, unemployment is rising and activity is weakening across the board. Unless Europe wants to become the next Japan, mired in permanent deflation and depression, action is needed now.

Stage one of the process should be a cut in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) when it meets in Bratislava on Thursday. The latest inflation figures show the annual increase in the cost of living across the 17-nation single-currency area fell from 1.7% to 1.2%, its lowest in three years and well below the ECB's 2% ceiling. Even Jens Weidmann, the ultra-hawkish president of Germany's Bundesbank, would be hard pressed to say there is a threat to price stability.

It's not hard to see why inflationary pressure is abating: the eurozone economy has been flat on its back for the past 18 months. Unemployment rose by 62,000 in March, taking the eurozone jobless rate to yet another record high of 12.1%. Spain and Greece remain the weak spots, but even in Germany labour market conditions are becoming more difficult. Across the eurozone, almost one in four young people are out of work.

Why is unemployment rising? Again, you don't have to be John Maynard Keynes to figure it out. Europe's banking system is bust, there is a shortage of credit, real incomes are under pressure and the deficiency of demand is being exacerbated by austerity overkill. Retail sales figures from Greece show that in February spending was more than 14% lower than a year earlier.

The malaise is spreading from the eurozone's periphery to its core. It will be mid-May before the official growth data for the first quarter of 2013 is published, but the early evidence from Spain, where GDP fell by 0.5%, is not encouraging. Judging by the grim forward-looking surveys of business and consumer confidence, the second quarter will suffer more of the same.

Monetary policy works only with a lag, so whatever the ECB does on Thursday will be too late to prevent the recession deepening. Angela Merkel has made it clear that she does not want to see a cut in the cost of borrowing, but it is time for the ECB to show its independence and act in the interests of all eurozone citizens, not just the one seeking re-election in the German polls this autumn.

In itself, a quarter-point cut in interest rates to 0.5% would do little to revive demand, ease the credit crunch or create jobs. Instead, it should be part of a three-pronged approach to boost growth. The cut in rates should be accompanied by an ECB announcement that it is willing to embrace the unconventional methods deployed by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and Japan to underpin activity. It should also be the catalyst for a less aggressive approach to cutting budget deficits, with countries given more time to bring their deficits below the eurozone ceiling of 3% of GDP.

For the past three years, macroeconomic policy in the eurozone has been run on sadomasochistic principles: that only regular doses of pain will ensure countries stick to strict reform programmes.

The upshot of this policy is clear for all to see. Businesses that are starved of credit are mothballing investment and cutting their workforce. Weaker growth means higher-than-expected budget deficits. Permanent austerity has bred social dislocation and political extremism. A different approach is needed to save the eurozone from catastrophe – starting on Thursday.

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