Aug. 6, 2017 (Commerzbank AG) -
In the short term, the euro should continue to
trend stronger, due to the political chaos in
the US and the ECB passing off a reduction
of bond purchases as a success in
September. EUR/USD will not probably be
able to decrease before the market prices in
more aggressive Fed rate hikes towards the
beginning of 2018.
• Regarding Brexit negotiations, our working
assumption is that ultimately there will be an
amicable agreement. However, uncertainty
will remain high for a long period so that
sterling will not recover for the time being.
• CNY seems set to further depreciate against
the dollar over the coming quarters.
3.8.2017 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18
EUR/USD 1.18 1.22 1.19 1.16 1.14 1.15
USD/JPY 110 110 112 115 110 108
EUR/CHF 1.15 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.13
EUR/GBP 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.91
AUD/USD 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.83
USD/CAD 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24
USD/CNY 6.72 6.68 6.76 6.83 6.84 6.83
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