Aug. 6, 2017 (Commerzbank AG) -

In the short term, the euro should continue to
trend stronger, due to the political chaos in
the US and the ECB passing off a reduction
of bond purchases as a success in
September. EUR/USD will not probably be
able to decrease before the market prices in
more aggressive Fed rate hikes towards the
beginning of 2018.

• Regarding Brexit negotiations, our working
assumption is that ultimately there will be an
amicable agreement. However, uncertainty
will remain high for a long period so that
sterling will not recover for the time being.

• CNY seems set to further depreciate against
the dollar over the coming quarters.

                  3.8.2017     Q3 17   Q4 17   Q1 18   Q2 18   Q3 18

EUR/USD     1.18            1.22       1.19       1.16        1.14        1.15
USD/JPY       110             110         112        115         110        108
EUR/CHF     1.15            1.17        1.16       1.14        1.12       1.13
EUR/GBP     0.90          0.90      0.91       0.90      0.89      0.91
AUD/USD     0.79          0.80      0.80      0.81       0.82      0.83
USD/CAD      1.26          1.27        1.27       1.26       1.25       1.24
USD/CNY      6.72         6.68       6.76       6.83       6.84      6.83