The Week in Focus: May 8 – 12 Outlook

May 6, 2017 (Commerzbank AG) – Emerging markets lose their growth advantage

It has become accepted as the norm today that low-income countries (“emerging markets”) grow more rapidly than high-income countries (“developed markets”). But whilst this has been the case over the past 17 years due to the impetus from globalisation, this factor has ground to a halt, leaving emerging markets without a natural growth advantage. Thus, in the absence of cyclical factors such as rising commodity prices which could provide a tailwind (currently not the case), EM growth is unlikely to substantially outstrip that of developed markets.

Further topics:

France: Macron will win the run-off

On Sunday, the French electorate will likely vote for Emmanuel Macron as their president. Although his reform plans will be made more difficult by an absence of a parliamentary majority following the June elections, he should still have considerable influence.

Forecast meeting: Fed – Why we are not following the market

We continue to believe the Fed will raise rates five more times by the end of next year. For one thing, weak US Q1 growth should prove an outlier, and a tight labour market points to faster wage growth. But unlike the Fed, the ECB will raise key rates later than the market expects.

Outlook for the week of 8 to 12 May 2017

  • Economic data: German Q1 GDP growth looks set to have been strong at 0.7% and should remain healthy in Q2. US retail sales look set to have inched up visibly in April.
  • Bond market: Investors are likely soon to refocus on economic data, central bank issues and supply. We look for 10y Bund yields to hold towards the upper end of their current sideways range for now.
  • FX market: A tail risk that Marine Le Pen will win the French presidential election remains priced into the options market and weighs on the euro for now. Sterling has come under pressure as markets realise that Brexit negotiations will not be easy.
  • Equity market: The promising dividend backdrop is a cornerstone of our expectation that the current eight-year DAX bull market will continue into 2018 or even 2019.
  • Commodity market: The price of Brent oil should stabilise at around 50 USD, even though the EIA is likely to lift its forecast for US oil production.


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