The Week in Focus: May 1 – 5 Outlook

Apr. 29, 2017 (Commerzbank AG) – 100 days of Trump – and the next 1361?

President Trump has not done too well in his first hundred days. Market enthusiasm in the first few weeks is therefore slowly turning to disillusionment. That said, it is too soon to write off his presidency already. A substantial tax cut will come, but later and on a smaller scale than expected. The trade war feared by some will not happen, but protectionism will remain on the agenda and could especially affect Germany.

Further topics:

Fed to shrug off Q1 and remain on course

After raising rates in March, the Fed will remain on hold at its meeting next week, leaving the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.75%-1.00%. It will probably dismiss both the slowdown in growth in Q1 and the surprisingly low inflation in March as statistical outliers. The US central bank remains on course for monetary policy normalisation and will likely raise rates twice more in 2017.

Outlook for the week of 1 to 5 May 2017

  • Economic data: In the US, the surge of sentiment indicators is probably over, but they still seem to be at relatively high levels. The April employment report should turn out much better than the March figures. In the euro zone, the economy probably grew in Q1 by 0.5% versus the previous quarter.
  • Bond market: With electoral risks in France subsiding, the Fed’s policy upcoming decisions will be in markets’ focus. Even though the next funds rate move is not expected in May, the FOMC will re-iterate its hawkish stance. Bund yields should trade in a well-established 0.20-0.50% range.
  • FX market: Next week’s FOMC meeting is unlikely to provide much impetus for the dollar.
  • Equity market: Stretched equity valuations suggest that selective stock picking is becoming ever more important. We retain a preference for companies willing to restructure, with a high US market share and earnings showing a positive reaction to a stronger US dollar.
  • Commodity market: Oil prices look set to recover in the week ahead. Solid sentiment indicators ought to point to robust oil demand, whilst declining US oil inventories look set to signal that supply is tightening.


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