An official limo has just deposited Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem at today’s meeting.

He gave a brief ‘doorstep’ to reporters — it sounds like he’s not expecting to sign off Greece’s next aid tranche today.

Dijsselbloem says progress has been made in recent weeks regarding Greece’s banks and reform programmes.

But there are still open issues, and a lot more work needs to be done in the next two weeks.

The first set of milestones must be completed soon, he adds (which would pave the way to disbursing that €2bn in new loans).

And Dijsselbloem says he can’t speculate about the political crisis in Portugal where left-wing parties could soon win power.

My understanding is there will be debate today and tomorrow, says Dijsselbloem. There is always a legitimate government in each country, and that’s the government we work with….

Ministers are starting to arrive at today’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels.

Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has told reporters gathered outside that he hopes Greece will receive its €2bn aid tranche this week, if not today.

Moscovici says he had “very positive, very fruitful meetings” in Athens last week with prime minister Alexis Tsipras and finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos.

The moves are positive. Most of the milestones are already adopted or decided. There is still a way to go.

We are not yet completely there, but I am hopeful and confident that with the spirit of compromise, with good co-operation with the authorities we can make it… if not today then in the days to come.

We are not far from that, but obviously there is a little way to go.

Moscovici then vanished inside, where he (or his team) tweeted this optimistic message too:

Now here’s a thing. Greece is apparently hoping to return to the financial markets next year.

Government insiders have told the Financial Times that plans are afoot to sell debt in the capital markets in 2016.

Despite the wild drama this year (capital controls, failing to repay the IMF, nearly leaving the eurozone), Athens hopes that investors will put their faith in them.

The FT says:

It won’t be in the first quarter but summer has been talked about,” said a person familiar with the situation.

“It depends on a positive chain reaction of events but discussions have been held.”

Full story: Greece plans a return to capital markets

Experienced City investors may raise their eyebrows….

On the other hand, Greece hasn’t actually defaulted on the three-year debt it issued last summer:

Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank, says investors need to pay attention to Greece again:

Rosenstreich is worried that Athens and its eurozone neighbours couldn’t reach agreement on how to handle the repossession of houses from people who are in default on their mortgages.

It suggests the whole third bailout deal, agreed after so much angst in July, may be in early trouble.

Rosenstreich says:

Left-wing Syriza is concerned that the high threshold will expose too many Greece citizens to the loss of their primary properties. In addition, Athens is balking at a 23% take rate on private schools.

This feels like a repeat of 8-months ago. The whole world understood that the third bailout agreement made was unsustainable. It was only a matter of time before it unraveled.

The OECD has just released its latest economic projections.

And the Paris-based thinktank has warned that global growth is threatened by the impact of China’s slowdown on world trade, but raised its forecast for US growth.

It also urged richer countries to step up investment while keeping monetary policy loose, as my colleague Katie Allen explains.

The thinktank’s twice-yearly outlook highlights risks from emerging markets and weak trade.

Presenting the Outlook in Paris, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said:

“The slowdown in global trade and the continuing weakness in investment are deeply concerning. Robust trade and investment and stronger global growth should go hand in hand.”

The thinktank edged up its forecast for economic growth in the group of 34 OECD countries this year to 2.0% from 1.9% in June’s outlook, when it had noted a sharp dip in US growth at the opening of 2015. For 2016, it has cut the forecast for OECD countries’ growth to 2.2% from 2.5%.

The OECD left its forecasts for the UK little changed with growth of 2.4% this year and next, compared with a forecast for 2016 growth of 2.3% made in June. The US economy, the world’s biggest, is now seen growing 2.4% this year and 2.5% in 2016, compared with June’s forecasts of 2.0% and 2.8%.

On the UK, the OECD said economic growth was projected to “continue at a robust pace over the coming two years, driven by domestic demand.”

Two eurozone officials have told the Wall Street Journal that there’s no chance that Greece will get its €2bn bailout loan at today’s eurogroup meeting.

That won’t please Michel Sapin, given his optimistic comments earlier. But it appears that Greece simply hasn’t done enough to satisfy lenders….

…in particular, over how to treat householders who can’t repay their mortgages. Athens and its creditors are still divided over which householders should be protected from foreclosure.

The WSJ’s Gabriele Steinhauser and Viktoria Dendrinou explains:

Senior officials from the currency union’s finance ministries were updated on Greece’s implementation of around 50 promised overhauls, known as milestones, during a conference call Sunday afternoon. While progress has been made on some issues—including measures to substitute a tax on private education, the governance of the country’s bailed-out banks and the treatment of overdue loans—Athens and its creditors will need more time to sign off on all overhauls, the officials said.

Greece needs the fresh loans to pay salaries and bills and settle domestic arrears. However, the government faces no immediate major payments to its international creditors, reducing the sense of urgency.

There will be “no agreement on [the] €2 billion,” one official said.

David Cameron is telling the CBI that he’s met business concerns, by cutting red tape and corporate taxes.

On infrastructure, he says the government has made progress – citing the planned HS2 railway – but admits there’s more to do.

We want to the most business friendly, enterprise friendly, government in the world, he adds. But the PM also acknowledges that Britain must do better on exports.

And he’s now outlining a new plan to give everyone guaranteed access to broadband, by 2020.

My colleague Andrew Sparrow is covering all the key points in his politics liveblog:

France is playing its traditional role as Greece’s ally, ahead of today’s meeting of eurozone finance chiefs.

French finance minister Michel Sapin has told reporters in Paris that he hopes an agreement can be reached today over the main outstanding hurdle — how to handle bad loans at Greek banks (as explained earlier).

Sapin offered Athens his support, saying:

Greece is making considerable efforts. They are scrupulously respecting the July agreement.

One thorny issue remains: the seizure of homes for households who can’t pay their debts. I want an agreement to be reached today. France wants an agreement today.

(thanks to Reuters for the quotes)

The prospect of a new anti-austerity government taking power in Portugal is hitting its government debt this morning.

The yield (or interest rate) on 10-year Portuguese bonds has risen from 2.67% to 2.77%, a ten-week high.

That’s not a major move, but a sign that investors are anxious about events in Lisbon.

The Dow Jones newswire is reporting that eurozone finance ministers definitely won’t agree to release Greece’s next aid tranche at today’s meeting, due to the lack of progress over its bailout measures:

After a couple of quiet months, Greece’s debt crisis has loomed back into the spotlight today.

A new dispute between Athens and her creditors is holding up the disbursement of Greece’s next aid tranche, worth €2bn.

Athens spent last weekend in a fevered attempt to persuade its creditors that it has met the terms agreed last summer, to qualify for the much-needed cash.

But it appears that lenders aren’t convinced, meaning that the payment won’t be signed off when eurogroup ministers meet in Brussels at 2pm today for a Eurogroup meeting.

The two sides are still arguing over new laws to repossess houses from people who are deep in arrears on their mortgage payments.

Athens is trying to dilute the terms agreed in July’s bailout deal, but eurozone creditors are sticking to their guns. They insist that Greek residences valued above €120,000 should be covered by the foreclosure laws, down from the current level of €200,000.

The Kathimerini newspaper explains:

The key stumbling block is primary residence foreclosures.

Greece has put forward stricter criteria that protects 60 percent of homeowners, while suggesting that this is then gradually reduced over the next years.

With a deal unlikely today, officials are now racing to get an agreement within 48 hours or so:

Greece told to break bailout deadlock by Wednesday

And Greece certainly needs the money, to settle overdue payments owed to hundreds of government suppliers who have been squeezed badly this year.