August 1 2014

In the trading room today: EUR and GBP Outlook ahead of ECB and BOE Meetings. With the Non-farm Payrolls, the FOMC decision and the U.S. GDP report behind us, we focus on the upcoming European Central Bank and Bank of England monetary policy meetings and explore the outlook for the EUR and the GBP, we list the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets in the week ahead, we examine the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we analyze the latest developments in the EUR/USD currency pair, we take a look at what may be the next support areas for the GBP/USD pair, we note the pullback of the USD vs JPY, we highlight the market’s reaction to the U.K. Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. Non-farm Payrolls, we discuss new forecasts from Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi and UniCredit, and prepare for the trading session ahead.


August 1, 2014 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) – Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.

Both the unemployment rate (6.2 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (9.7 million) changed little in July. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons have declined by 1.1 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively.

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, changed little in July. The participation rate has been essentially unchanged since April. The employment-population ratio, at 59.0 percent, was unchanged over the month but has edged up by 0.3 percentage point over the past 12 months.

In July, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.5 hours for the fifth straight month. The manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.2 hour in July to 40.9 hours, and factory overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.7 hours for the fifth consecutive month.

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent to $24.45. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $20.61.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +224,000 to +229,000, and the change for June was revised from +288,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June were 15,000 higher than previously reported.

The Employment Situation for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 5, 2014, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).