November 8 2013

In the trading room today: Will the USD Continue to Attract Bids Next Week? As we wrap up an interesting trading week that has brought us a stronger U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data and a rate cut by the European Central Bank, we examine the factors fueling the recent USD rally and ponder if the greenback will continue to attract bids in the week ahead, we list the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets next week, we examine the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we analyze the latest trend developments in the EUR/USD pair, we continue to monitor the move lower in the GBP/USD pair, we note the bullish stance of the USD vs JPY, we highlight the market’s reaction to the Canadian and the U.S. Employment Situation reports, we discuss new forecasts from BNP Paribas and HSBC, and prepare for the trading session ahead.


November 8, 2013 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) – Total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care.

Federal government employment continued to trend down. There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey. Leisure and hospitality employment rose by 53,000 in October. Within the industry, employment in food services and drinking places increased by 29,000, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Employment in retail trade increased by 44,000 in October, compared with an average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months. Job growth was widespread within the industry in October, with gains in food and beverage stores (+12,000), electronics and appliance stores (+10,000), sporting goods and hobby stores (+8,000), general merchandise stores (+8,000), and building material and garden supply stores (+7,000). Clothing and clothing accessories stores lost 13,000 jobs.

Professional and technical services employment rose in October (+21,000) and has grown by 213,000 over the past 12 months. Within the industry, employment in management and technical consulting services rose by 8,000 in October. Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs in October, with job growth occurring in motor vehicles and parts (+6,000), wood products (+3,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000). On net, manufacturing employment has changed little since February 2013. Health care employment increased over the month (+15,000). Job growth in health care has averaged 17,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 27,000 in 2012. In October, employment showed little or no change elsewhere in the private sector, including mining and logging, construction, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities.

Federal government employment declined by 12,000 in October. Over the past 12 months, federal government employment has decreased by 94,000. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were still considered employed in the payroll survey because they worked or received pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +193,000 to +238,000, and the change for September was revised from +148,000 to +163,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 60,000 higher than previously reported.

The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 6, 2013, at 8:30 a.m. (EST).