November 2013

In the trading room today: Is the Bearish JPY Trend Going to Accelerate? As the JPY continues to trade under pressure despite of the dissent of one Bank of Japan board member, we examine the small correction of the yen’s recent losses and explore the potential for the bearish JPY trend against the USD to accelerate in the near future, we analyze the bullish breakout in the USD/JPY currency pair, we continue to monitor the resilience of the EUR vs USD, we take a look at the GBP/USD pair ahead of tomorrow’s U.K. GDP report, we highlight the market’s reaction to the Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes, the U.S. Housing Starts and Home Price Index, we discuss new forecasts from Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas, and prepare for the trading session ahead.


USA 

In the trading room today: EUR, USD and GBP New Trading Week Outlook. At the start of the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trading week which might be a bit quiet on the economic front but not without the potential for some significant price moves, we focus on the EUR, the USD and the GBP and explore the outlook for these three currency majors, we analyze the latest trend developments in the EUR/USD currency pair, we examine the triple top resistance for the GBP/USD pair, we continue to monitor the USD rally against the JPY, we highlight the market’s reaction to statement by an ECB official, the U.K. Mortgage Approvals and the U.S. Pending Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from BNP Paribas and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

In the trading room today: What will it Take for the EUR to Weaken? With the EUR exhibiting remarkable resilience against the USD despite of the ECB rate cut and the less dovish Fed meeting minutes report, we examine the factors supporting the euro and ponder what would it take for the single currency to weaken significantly against the greenback, we list the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets in the week ahead, we examine the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we analyze the latest trend developments in the EUR/USD currency pair, we take a look at the rally of the GBP vs USD, we keep an eye on the USD/JPY pair, we highlight the market’s reaction to the statements by the ECB and the Bank of Japan officials, the German GDP and Ifo Business Climate Index, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup and Mizuho Bank, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Upbeat mood in Britain contrasts with pessimistic eurozone surveys. Fears of recession in France grow. Eurozone composite PMI remains in expansion territory above the 50 mark at 51.5, but declines from October’s level of 51.9…

 


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “UK manufacturing expands at fastest rate since 1995″ was written by Heather Stewart, for theguardian.com on Thursday 21st November 2013 13.32 UTC

Britain’s manufacturing sector is expanding at its fastest pace for 18 years as new orders pour in, according to a new survey, rekindling hopes for a rebalancing of the economy.

The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly industrial trends survey shows manufacturing orders and output both at their highest level since 1995.

The CBI said that 36% of firms reported their order books were above normal, with 25% saying they were below normal. The resulting balance of +11% was the strongest since March 1995. Similarly, the positive balance for firms’ level of output, at +29%, was the strongest since January 1995.

Stephen Gifford, the CBI’s director of economics, said: “This new evidence shows encouraging signs of a broadening and deepening recovery in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturers finally seem to be feeling the benefit of growing confidence and spending within the UK and globally.”

The coalition will be encouraged to see signs of a revival in British industry, after fears that the economic recovery has so far been too reliant on consumer spending and an upturn in the housing market.

The chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, has said he would like to see a “march of the makers”, helping to double exports by the end of the decade, so that Britain can “pay its way in the world”.

Business surveys have been pointing to a revival in manufacturing for some time, but it has only recently begun to be reflected in official figures, which showed a 0.9% increase in output from the sector in the third quarter of 2013, driven primarily by the success of carmakers. However, output from manufacturing remains more than 8% below its peak before the financial crisis.

News of the upbeat mood among manufacturers in the UK contrasts with more pessimistic surveys from the eurozone where the so-called “flash PMIs” suggest that the economic recovery is petering out in several countries, including France.

While the composite PMI for the eurozone remains above the 50 mark at 51.5, this is a decline from October’s level of 51.9, suggesting that while the eurozone economy as a whole has not slipped back into recession, the pace of growth appears to have slowed.

Chris Williamson, of data provider Markit, which compiles the survey, said: “The fall in the PMI for a second successive month suggests that the European Central Bank was correct to cut interest rates to a record low at its last meeting, and the further loss of growth momentum will raise calls for policy makers to do more to prevent the eurozone from slipping back into another recession.”

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In the trading room today: Is the GBP Ready for New 2013 Highs vs USD? In the aftermath of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes release, we take a close look at the renewed bullish momentum of the GBP and explore the potential for continuation of the sterling’s rally that could lead to new highs for the year against the greenback, we analyze the test of an important resistance level for the GBP/USD currency pair, we continue to monitor the resilience of the EUR vs USD, we note the pullback in the USD/JPY pair, we highlight the market’s reaction to the Japanese Trade Balance, the Bank of England Meeting Minutes, the U.S. Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.