In the trading room today: Will the ECB Monetary Policy Weaken the EUR? With the ECB press conference underway following the central bank’s monetary policy meeting, we examine the prospects of additional measures to boost liquidity in the euro-area with another round of LTRO and explore its implications for the current EUR rally, we analyze the latest trend developments in the EUR/USD currency pair, we continue to monitor the breakout in the GBP/USD pair, we note the decline in the USD/JPY pair, we highlight the market’s reaction to the European Central Bank interest rate announcement and the U.S. ADP Employment Report, we discuss new forecasts from Credit Agricole and Barclays, and prepare for the trading session ahead.
So, Django Alfano is standing his ground and wants to support Letta in the vote of confidence, as do the other maybe ministers and a chunk of the party.
Berlusconi says he wants the government to fall and to have new elections.
The two will meet again this morning at 9’30 so things could change.
Marina Berlusconi is said to be ready to enter into politics.
I asked yesterday how you could have a vote of confidence in a government that didn’t exist. On Monday, Letta’s office said the resignations were irrevocable but yesterday afternoon, it announced that it had refused to accept them. The ‘maybe ministers’ will walk into parliament today as ministers.
Giovanardi claimed yesterday that there were 40 PdL senators ready to vote for Letta (some reports in the evening said that number was dwindling). He even spoke of a new party called Nuova Italia
There were some nasty exchanges last night between Sallusti, editor of Il Giornale and Cicchitto, an important PdL dissident. Sallusti said they were cowards, hitting the man when he was down and that they had forgotten what had happened to Fini. “They are stabbing him in the back in his moment of weakness. They are cowards because they didn’t have the courage to do it when he was strong.”
“No! You are the coward!” etc…
Letta has said he will refuse to govern with a weak majority.
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Possible scenarios;
Letta wins vote of confidence with sufficient votes to continue in government.
Letta wins vote of confidence with insufficient votes to continue in government and Napolitano sets up a technical government.
Letta wins vote of confidence by a narrow margin and continues to govern
Letta loses vote of confidence and Napolitano sets up a technical government.
Letta doesn’t call for a vote of confidence and Napolitano sets up a technical government.
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With regard to policy, there would be very little to distinguish between a Letta government and a technical government so we will be as we were after this dramatic little interlude. The change is likely to be inside the PdL.