January 11 2013

In the broadcast today: EUR and USD New Trading Week Outlook. In the aftermath of the European Central Bank’s decision to refrain from further monetary policy easing, we note the renewed strength of the EUR against the USD and explore what the new trading week might have in store for these two currency majors, we list the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets in the week ahead, we examine the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we analyze the bullish breakout in the EUR/USD currency pair, we explain why disappointing U.K. economic data weighs on the GBP, we continue to monitor the “unstoppable” rally of the USD vs. JPY, we highlight the market’s reaction to the U.K. Industrial Production and the U.S. Trade Balance, we discuss new forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

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Sluggish industrial performance and shrinking manufacturing output renew fears of triple-dip recession in the UK. Demand for goods has been hammered by economic uncertainty and punishing austerity, while exports have been hit by the eurozone crisis…



Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “UK industrial production growth weaker than forecast” was written by Josephine Moulds, for guardian.co.uk on Friday 11th January 2013 10.51 UTC

UK industry posted sluggish growth in November, renewing fears that the economy shrank in the final quarter and pushing Britain towards an unprecedented triple-dip recession.

Manufacturing output dropped 0.3% in November, after a fall of 1.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The wider reading of industrial output – also including output from the energy and mining sectors – grew by 0.3% following a sharp decline in October, which was revised down further on Friday to -0.9%. November’s figures were boosted by an 11.3% jump in oil and gas output – the biggest increase since 1968 – after maintenance of the Buzzard North Sea oil field was completed.

But both manufacturing and industrial production missed expectations, with analysts hoping for rises of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively.

Demand for goods in the UK has been hammered by economic uncertainty, below-inflation wage growth and punishing austerity, while exports have been hit by the ongoing eurozone crisis.

Britain emerged from recession in the third quarter of last year and there were tentative hopes the economy could continue to grow in the last three months of 2012. But a series of gloomy releases – including weak trade data and downbeat purchasing managers’ surveys – have fuelled fears of a contraction in the final quarter. If output continues to fall in the first quarter of this year, the UK will fall into its third recession in four years.

Separate figures out from the ONS on Friday only added to concerns, as construction output dropped 3.4% in November.

Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said: “Hopes the economy avoided a renewed GDP dip in the fourth quarter of 2012 took another significant blow as industrial production could only manage a small rebound in November following sharp drops over the previous two months, while construction output suffered a marked relapse following October’s surge.”

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